Ajax return to competitive action with 7 wins from their last 9 meetings against Willem II, a record that underscores the size of the challenge facing the visitors on Tuesday evening. The hosts have won each of the 5 most recent itemised encounters, including a 5-0 rout in December 2021 and a 3-1 victory in January 2021, and have not tasted defeat against this opposition across that sequence. Willem II's solitary win in the overall head to head record offers little by way of recent encouragement, and the 1 draw completes a set of results that has seen 3.0 goals per meeting and both teams scoring in 4 of the 9 fixtures.

Ajax arrive rated at 9.11 out of 10 by Formatic's weighted form metric, a figure that places them in excellent condition. Their last 5 outings produced 4 wins and 1 draw, with 9 goals scored and only 3 conceded. They have found the net in all 5 of those matches and kept clean sheets in 2, a defensive solidity built around competitive victories such as the 4-1 win away to Vojvodina in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 23 July and the 1-0 home success against Olympiakos Piraeus on 18 July. The 1-1 draw at home to VfL Bochum on 15 July remains their only game without a win in that stretch, and even that result extended their unbeaten run. Over a 5-match sample, Ajax have averaged 18.4 shots per game, 7 on target, and 6.4 corners, while controlling 60.4 percent of possession and posting 1.72 expected goals per outing. They have failed to score in 20 percent of fixtures, kept a clean sheet in 50 percent, and committed 10.6 fouls per match while collecting 1.6 yellow cards.

Willem II come into this fixture with a form score of 5.56 out of 10, a steady rating that reflects 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat across their last 4 matches. They have scored 6 goals and conceded 5 in that spell, finding the net in all 4 games but managing only 1 clean sheet. The 1-0 home win over KV Mechelen on 25 July represents their most recent result, while the 2-2 draw at home to FC Eindhoven on 11 July and the 1-2 home loss to Quick Boys on 4 July complete a pre-season programme that has been mixed. Their only competitive result in the sample is the 2-1 away victory at FC Volendam in the Eerste Divisie on 23 May. The form gap of 3.55 in Ajax's favour suggests a significant gulf in momentum, and the visitors will need to overcome both that deficit and a head to head record that has seen them beaten in 5 straight itemised meetings.

The historical pattern points to an Ajax win, with 5 of the last 9 fixtures producing over 2.5 goals and the hosts averaging nearly 2 goals per game across those encounters. Ajax's superior firepower, reflected in their 9 goals from 5 matches and their ability to score in every outing, sets them apart from a Willem II side that has conceded in 3 of their last 4. The home advantage and the weight of recent form combine to make Ajax clear favourites, and the question is whether Willem II can avoid the kind of heavy defeat that has marked some of these meetings. The 5-0 scoreline from December 2021 serves as a reminder of what can happen when this gulf in quality is fully expressed, and the visitors will look to their 4-match scoring run as evidence they can at least trouble the hosts. Whether they can prevent Ajax from extending their winning streak in this fixture depends on a defensive improvement that has yet to materialise in their preparation.