How our prediction engine works

Every team is scored using their last 5 match results, weighted by recency. A win scores 3 points, a draw 1, a loss 0 — most recent match weighted ×5, scaling down to ×1 for the oldest.

We factor in goals scored and conceded per game, expected goals (xG) over the last 5 matches, and head-to-head history.

Odds are the median across 15+ UK bookmakers to remove outlier pricing and get a stable market view.

We cover 16 competitions — Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, Championship, Eredivisie, Primeira Liga, Europa League, 2. Bundesliga, Ligue 2, Segunda Division, Serie B, Brasileirao, MLS and Champions League — refreshed every morning.

For every match the engine predicts a single Correct Score that captures how it expects the game to play out. Every other pick is derived from that score — so the picks on a match never contradict each other.

From the predicted score the engine derives 3 tracked picks: a Match Result pick (Home Win / Away Win / Draw / Double Chance / Draw No Bet), a Total Goals pick (Over or Under at the line that best fits the score), and a Both Teams to Score pick (Yes or No).

Each of the 3 tracked picks gets a 1–10 trust score and a written explanation. The explanation is generated from form, xG, GPG and recent results — no boilerplate.

High (trust 8–10, green dots) — strongest reads, market and model align, multiple supporting signals.

Medium (trust 5–7, amber dots) — solid pick with clear directional signal but more variance.

Low (trust 1–4, red dots) — published for context only, not part of the headline Top Pick metric.

Each match produces up to 4 tracked predictions (Match Result, Goals, BTTS, Correct Score). The Top Pick is whichever of those scores highest on a balance of trust × odds:

score = trust + (odds − 1.40) × 1.0 + reasoning_boost

Picks below 1.30 odds incur a penalty so the Top Pick is never a meaningless near-lock unless the engine has no better option.

Reasoning boost (0–3) only fires when the engine has match-specific conviction — squad rotation confirmed, dead rubber, derby narrative, weather, or a key injury that tilts the read.

Every match is scored by the same engine. The difference is how much of the slate you see.

Free: the Top Pick of the Day (single highest-confidence pick across all 16 leagues + the World Cup), one Goals pick (Over 2.5 by default), and the right to browse the full catalogue with the rest of the markets locked.

Premium: every Top Pick across every match unlocked, every Goals pick unlocked, the full match-detail pages with Match Result + Goals + BTTS + Correct Score per match, and the Daily Acca.

All picks are locked at publication and never retroactively changed. Odds update through the day; the pick direction and trust score are frozen at publish time. Premium picks may be voided if odds move significantly — see section 07.

In addition to straight wins, the engine routinely picks Draw No Bet (DNB) and Double Chance (DC). DNB returns your stake on a draw. DC covers two outcomes — home or draw, away or draw — at lower odds with higher hit rate.

Goals Boost — one Over 1.5 pick per day on the match with the strongest goals signal. Tracked as its own hit-rate stat. Historically hits 80%+.

Daily Acca — a 3 or 4 leg accumulator built from each day's strongest plays across all markets. Combined odds vary day to day. Hit rate and ROI tracked publicly on /stats.

Once a pick is published it is locked — the pick direction and trust score never change. Odds update through the day as the market reacts to team news and betting activity.

If a premium pick's odds move more than 10% since publication we mark it with an arrow — ↑ for drift up, ↓ for drop. That signals the market has shifted; check the live price before betting.

If a premium pick's odds drop below 1.40 it is voided. The pick stays visible marked Voided so you can see it was there, but it is excluded from all performance stats.

Picks selected as legs of the daily acca are exempt from voiding.

Free picks are never voided.

All voided picks are filterable on the picks page.