Alavés enter this fixture with a weighted form score of 6.1 out of 10, a steady platform built on 3 wins from their last 5 outings and a record of scoring in every one of those matches. The competitive spine of that run included a 1-0 win away to Oviedo in May and a clean sheet in 3 of those 5 fixtures, though two of those shutouts came in pre-season friendlies against Castellón and Girona. Their 7-match season profile shows 4.6 shots on target per game and an expected goals figure of 1.32, while they have failed to score in 0 percent of those matches and kept clean sheets in 40 percent. Possession sits at 39.3 percent, suggesting a side content to absorb pressure and strike on the break.

Osasuna arrive with a patchy form score of 4.3 out of 10, having won only 2 of their last 5 and lost all three of their competitive fixtures before the summer break. That sequence included home defeats to Espanyol and Atletico Madrid, both by 2-1, and a 1-0 loss away to Getafe. Across those 5 matches they conceded 6 and managed clean sheets in just 1 of 5, a fragility reflected in a season profile that shows defensive solidity in only 10 percent of their 8-match sample. They average 4.9 shots on target per game and 1.27 expected goals, marginally below Alavés, though their 51.8 percent possession marks them as the side more comfortable holding the ball.

The head to head record across the last 10 meetings is finely balanced, with Osasuna edging it 4 wins to 3 and 3 draws between them. The most recent encounter in April ended 2-2, while the previous December saw Osasuna win 3-0 at home. Both teams have scored in 5 of those 10 fixtures and over 2.5 goals has landed in exactly half, an average of 2.6 goals per meeting pointing to contests that can open up. The three draws in that sequence all came in the most recent five itemised meetings, including two 2-2 scorelines in 2025 and 2024.

The form gap of 1.8 in Alavés' favour is the widest pointer in this data set, and their unbroken scoring run across 5 matches contrasts sharply with Osasuna's record of failing to score in 20 percent of their sample. Alavés have conceded only 3 goals in their last 5 while Osasuna have shipped 6 in the same span, and that defensive gap matters when the head to head history shows both sides capable of finding the net. With Alavés registering 40 percent clean sheets to Osasuna's 10 percent and carrying the better recent form into a fixture that has produced goals at both ends, the numbers suggest the hosts hold the edge and the value sits with backing them to leverage that platform at home.