Almería arrive third with 15 points from seven games and a goal difference of plus 7, the kind of return that reflects a side scoring 1.57 and conceding just 0.57 per game in the league this season. Burgos sit a single place and a single point behind in fourth, their own plus 4 difference built on 11 scored but 7 conceded, a wider defensive gap than their hosts. That one point separating them at the top of this pairing suggests a tight contest even if the underlying numbers lean slightly Almería's way.

Almería's form is strong, and the last 10 back that up: 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses, with 17 scored and just 5 conceded, including clean sheets in 6 of those 10 matches. The competitive run within that sample has been particularly sharp, wins away to Mallorca 1-0, at home to Celta de Vigo II 2-0, away to Cordoba 2-0 and at home to Cadiz 3-2, though two league defeats without scoring, 0-1 at Sabadell and 0-1 at Tenerife, show they are not immune to blanks. Season data has them controlling matches too, averaging 52.7 percent possession and 11.6 shots per game, with a clean sheet in 60 percent of their outings.

Burgos are steady rather than surging, 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from their last 10, with 12 scored and 10 conceded, a shakier defensive record than Almería's across the same window. Recent competitive form has still yielded results, a 1-0 home win over Eldense, a 2-1 away win at Las Palmas and a 3-1 home win over AD Ceuta FC, but goalless and drawn games against Oviedo and Real Sociedad II point to a side that can go quiet in front of goal, backed by season figures showing they fail to score in 40 percent of matches and average fewer shots on target per game than Almería, 2.7 to 3.7.

The head to head is closer than the league table suggests, Almería have won 3 of the last 6 meetings, Burgos 2, with 1 draw, and only 2 of those 6 have produced both teams scoring. Recent meetings have split too, Burgos won 1-2 away at Almería in December 2025 and 3-1 at home in March 2025, either side of a 0-0 draw in May 2026. With Almería's superior defensive numbers and stronger recent form against a Burgos side that draws often and can misfire, this looks set up as a cagey affair where the hosts' control of possession and shots edges them toward a narrow win rather than an open, high-scoring game.