Almería welcome visitors nursing a weighted form score of just 1.33 out of 10 against their own steady 5.56, a gap of 4.23 points that frames Sunday's Segunda División encounter before a ball is kicked. The hosts have taken 8 points from their last 5 competitive outings, winning 2, drawing 2 and losing 1, while their recent league defeat came narrowly, 2-1 at home to Malaga in June. That loss sits alongside a 3-2 home win over Castellón and a pair of draws, both against the same opposition, suggesting a side capable of finding goals even when results turn scrappy. Across those 5 matches Almería scored 6 and conceded 5, keeping clean sheets in 2 and finding the net in 4, and their season profile across a 9-match sample shows 14.6 shots per game with 4.7 on target, clean sheets in 40 percent of fixtures and a failure to score in only 20 percent.

Cádiz arrive with 1 win from their last 5, a 7-0 friendly thrashing of Barbate that carries little weight beside three consecutive 1-goal friendly defeats and a 4-1 league hammering at Racing Santander in late May. They have scored 9 and conceded 8 across those 5, managing a clean sheet in just 1, and the absence of a competitive fixture since the end of May leaves their sharpness open to question. Four of those 5 were pre-season friendlies, the sort of scoreline volatility that offers little guide to form, but the Racing result was emphatic and recent enough to matter. The contrast with Almería, who have played competitive Segunda División football into late June and added a friendly win over Águilas in late July, is stark.

The head to head record over the last 10 meetings favours Almería 4 wins to 2, with 4 draws, and the hosts have won 3 of the last 5 itemised encounters, including a 6-1 demolition in May 2024 and a 3-0 victory in November 2025. The most recent meeting in February 2026 saw Almería take it 2-1 away, and across the full sample both teams have scored in 9 of 10, with 3.0 goals per meeting and over 2.5 goals landing in 6 of 10. That mutual scoring habit sits oddly against Almería's recent defensive solidity, 2 clean sheets from 5, and their season profile that shows shut-outs in 40 percent of games, but the pattern is long enough to note.

Almería average 4.2 corners per game across their 9-match sample and hold possession at 49.4 percent, numbers that suggest controlled phases without dominance, and they commit 14.2 fouls with 2.7 yellow cards per outing. The home side have scored in 4 of their last 5 and failed to find the net in only 20 percent of their season sample, a reliability that Cádiz's ragged pre-season and solitary clean sheet cannot match. With the form gap this wide and the head to head tilting home, the value case leans toward Almería capitalising on opponents still finding rhythm, and whether the both-teams-scoring trend holds or the hosts' recent defensive tightness prevails will decide the shape of the scoreline.