Almería welcome Celta Vigo B to Segunda División on Sunday afternoon with both sides carrying steady form into the fixture but precious little to separate them on recent evidence. The visitors edge the weighted form score 6.00 to 5.56 out of 10, a gap of just 0.44 points that reflects how evenly matched these two appear across their last five outings. Neither has been dominant, but neither has fallen apart either, and the numbers suggest a closely fought contest in which small margins will decide the outcome.

Almería have taken 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from their last 5 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 5 across that stretch. They have found the net in 4 of those 5 fixtures and kept clean sheets in 2 of them, most recently a 1-0 victory away to Águilas in a club friendly on 25 July. Before that friendly, their competitive form was mixed: a 1-2 home defeat to Malaga on 20 June, a goalless draw away to the same opponents on 14 June, and a pair of meetings with Castellón that produced a 3-2 home win on 9 June and a 1-1 away draw on 6 June. That pattern shows a side capable of scoring in bunches but also vulnerable to conceding, particularly when forced to chase games at home. Over a 9-match sample this season, Almería have averaged 14.6 shots and 4.7 shots on target per game, with 49.4 percent possession and 4.2 corners. They have kept clean sheets in 40 percent of games and failed to score in 20 percent, underlining a generally reliable attacking output but an inconsistent defensive foundation.

Celta Vigo B arrive unbeaten in their last 5, collecting 2 wins and 3 draws without a defeat, and they have scored 9 while conceding 5. They have scored in 4 of those 5 matches and registered 1 clean sheet. Their most recent outing was a 1-1 draw away to Lugo in a club friendly on 25 July, but their competitive form before that was sharper: a 4-1 home demolition of Ponferradina in the Primera División RFEF Play Offs on 20 June, a 0-0 away draw with the same side on 13 June, a 3-2 home victory over Europa Fc on 7 June, and a 1-1 away draw with Europa Fc on 31 May. That sequence tells the story of a side that thrives at home in knockout football, racking up 7 goals in two home play-off wins, but also one comfortable grinding out results on the road when necessary. The lack of a defeat in 5 gives them a psychological edge, even if the form score itself is only marginally superior.

This fixture hinges on Almería's home advantage against Celta Vigo B's modest unbeaten run. Almería's 9-match profile shows they generate chances at a healthy rate, averaging nearly 15 shots per game, but their 40 percent clean sheet rate over that sample warns against expecting a shutout here. Celta Vigo B have conceded in 4 of their last 5 and conceded 5 goals across that stretch, so both defences carry enough question marks to suggest goals at both ends. The form gap of 0.44 is tight enough that home advantage could erase it entirely, and with Almería scoring in 4 of 5 and Celta Vigo B doing likewise, the goals profile points toward an open contest rather than a cagey stalemate. The scorelines in both sides' recent schedules have leaned toward the 1-1, 1-2 and 3-2 range, and that cluster suggests a match settled by one or two moments rather than a procession.