Andorra welcome Ceuta to Segunda División action on Sunday with the two sides arriving in starkly contrasting shape. The hosts carry a Formatic weighted form score of 8 out of 10, rated excellent across their last five outings, while the visitors limp in on 3.33 out of 10, a poor return that leaves a 4.67-point gulf between them. That gap, the widest measure of recent momentum, frames a fixture where one side has found rhythm through pre-season and the other has stumbled.

Andorra's summer has been productive, recording 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss across their last five matches. They have scored 9 goals and conceded just 4, finding the net in 3 of those 5 and keeping clean sheets in 2. The competitive edge came late in May when they fell 0-1 away to Burgos, but pre-season has been confident: a 2-1 home win over Millwall, a goalless draw at home to Stevenage, a 5-2 home victory against Inter Club d'Escaldes and a 2-0 away win at Gimnastic. That sequence, though weighted toward friendlies, shows an attack clicking into gear and a defence tightening after the Burgos setback. The 9 goals across the sample and the two clean sheets in the last three outings suggest a side ready to impose themselves at home.

Ceuta's recent record reads 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses, with 5 scored and 7 conceded. They have found the net in 4 of their last 5 but kept clean sheets in only 2, and the pattern has been uneven. Their competitive fixtures in May delivered a 1-4 home defeat to Malaga, a 2-0 away win at Andorra and a 1-0 home victory over Albacete. Pre-season has offered little encouragement, with a 0-1 loss away to Juventud Torremolinos and a 1-2 defeat away to Sevilla. The 7 conceded across the sample and the three losses point to fragility, especially on the road, and the contrast with their hosts is sharp.

The head to head record over the last two meetings favours Ceuta emphatically: 2 wins from 2, with Andorra yet to take a point. Ceuta won 2-1 away on 4 January 2026 and followed that with a 2-0 away victory on 24 May 2026, the most recent competitive meeting between the sides. The two fixtures have averaged 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 1 of 2 and over 2.5 goals landing in 1 of 2. That recent dominance is a counterweight to current form, but the manner of Ceuta's summer suggests they will struggle to replicate it here.

Andorra's home advantage, their excellent form score and their goals output over the last five outings all point toward control of this fixture. Ceuta carry the psychological edge of two straight wins in the head to head, but their poor form and defensive record suggest that sequence is under serious threat. The hosts' ability to score across multiple matches and shut out opponents in half their recent games frames a contest where value may sit with the side in rhythm rather than the side with history on their side.