Arouca return to Primeira Liga action in worrying shape, their pre-season campaign yielding just 1 win from 5 outings and a combined return of 4 goals scored against 6 conceded. That solitary victory came in their final competitive fixture back in May, a 3-1 home win over Tondela, but the four friendlies that followed have produced nothing but concern. Defeats of 3-0 at Santa Clara and 2-1 at Rio Ave frame a sequence in which they have scored in only 2 of those 5 matches and managed 2 clean sheets, both in goalless stalemates at Famalicao and Feirense. Formatic's weighted form score of 2.22 out of 10 reflects a side yet to find rhythm or confidence ahead of the new campaign.

Maritimo arrive with a steadier pre-season profile, recording 2 wins and 2 defeats across their 4 warm-up fixtures. They opened with a 1-0 home loss to Academica before responding with consecutive 2-0 victories over AVS and Camacha, both at home. A heavy 5-1 reverse against Leixoes interrupted that progress, but the visitors have still managed 5 goals across the four matches while conceding 6, scoring in 3 of 4 and keeping 2 clean sheets. That body of work translates to a Formatic form score of 5.33 out of 10, a 3.11-point advantage over their hosts and a signal that Maritimo have approached the opening weekend in notably better condition.

The head to head record across the last 10 meetings leans 5-2 in Arouca's favour with 3 draws, and the fixtures have averaged 2.6 goals, with both teams scoring in 6 of 10 and over 2.5 goals landing in 5 of 10. The five itemised encounters show Arouca taking a 1-0 home win in April 2023 and Maritimo responding with a 3-0 away victory in February 2022, while the remaining three were split between a 1-1 draw in October 2022, a 2-2 draw in September 2021 and a 3-1 Maritimo win in March 2017. That historical edge offers Arouca little comfort given the current form gap, and the pre-season evidence suggests the visitors are better equipped to impose themselves.

Arouca have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 and have won just once in that span, all against opposition outside the top flight. Maritimo's greater goal threat, evidenced by 5 scored in 4 outings despite the Leixoes collapse, and their superior form rating point to a fixture in which the away side should carry the greater attacking intent. With both teams scoring in 6 of the last 10 meetings and 5 of those 10 clearing 2.5 goals, the goals market warrants attention, but Arouca's struggles in front of goal and at the back during pre-season make them vulnerable. The 3.11-point form gap is the largest number in this brief, and it frames a fixture in which Maritimo hold every momentum advantage heading into the opening weekend.