Arsenal welcome Chelsea on the back of a head-to-head record that has become almost entirely one-way traffic. The hosts have won 7 of the last 10 encounters between the clubs, with Chelsea failing to win any of them. Three draws are all the visitors have managed in that span, and the most recent meetings have been especially stark: Arsenal have taken all five of the itemised fixtures, including a 3-2 victory in January 2026, a 1-0 home win in February and a 2-1 success at the start of March. That sequence has produced an average of 2.8 goals per match, with both teams scoring in 6 of the 10 and over 2.5 goals landing in exactly half.

Arsenal arrive in strong form, rated 7.78 out of 10 by Formatic's weighted model across their last five outings. That run comprises 4 wins and a draw, with 6 scored and only 2 conceded. They have found the net in all 5 matches and kept 3 clean sheets, the most recent a 1-0 home win against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League on 5 May, followed by three consecutive 1-0 league victories over West Ham, Burnley and Crystal Palace before a 1-1 draw away to Paris Saint Germain on 30 May. The pattern is clear: Arsenal have been exceptionally difficult to break down, conceding once or not at all in every fixture, and their narrow margins suggest a side grinding out results with defensive solidity as the foundation.

Chelsea's recent record presents the opposite picture. Their last five matches have yielded only 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 8. More troubling still, they have failed to keep a single clean sheet in that stretch and have scored in just 4 of the 5 outings. Formatic's weighted form score of 3.11 out of 10 reflects poor underlying performance, and the individual results bear that out: a 3-1 home defeat to Nottingham Forest on 4 May, a 1-1 draw at Liverpool, a 1-0 loss at home to Manchester City in the FA Cup, a 2-1 home win against Tottenham that briefly interrupted the slide, then a 1-2 defeat away to Sunderland on 24 May. The gap between the two sides' recent form stands at 4.67 in Arsenal's favour, a substantial margin that aligns with both the head-to-head record and the broader season narrative.

The defensive fragility Chelsea are carrying into this fixture is especially concerning given Arsenal's ability to control games at home and their record of scoring in every recent outing. With the head-to-head pointing to regular goals at both ends but Arsenal winning comfortably, and with Chelsea's clean-sheet drought continuing over five matches, the hosts will be confident of extending their dominance. The numbers suggest Arsenal are well-placed to add another victory to a sequence that has now stretched across multiple competitions and the better part of a year, and Chelsea will need to produce something well beyond what their recent performances indicate if they are to reverse this trend.