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    World Cup · kickoff 19:00
    FT 1-1
    Australia
    Australia
    DWLDD
    final
    1 - 1
    Egypt
    Egypt
    DWDDL
    how the market sees it finishing
    27%
    Australia
    34%
    Draw
    39%
    Egypt

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 1 - 2

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.

    13.50
    X2.80
    22.37

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultLoss
    Away Win@ 2.37
    Safer: Egypt or draw at 1.28
    7/10
    Egypt hold a clear form advantage (5.11 vs 3.56) and superior attacking output (1.4 GPG vs 1.0). Australia's 3.56 form reflects inconsistent World Cup preparation, while Egypt's away record justifies the 2.45 odds.
    GoalsLoss
    Over 2.5 Goals@ 2.62
    6/10
    Combined 2.4 GPG between the sides suggests 2-3 goals. Egypt's 1.4 GPG away and Australia needing to attack at home point to an open game, though neither side prolific enough for high confidence.
    Both teams to scoreWin
    Yes@ 2.20
    6/10
    Australia's 1.0 GPG at home gives them scoring capability despite poor form. Egypt concede on the road, and World Cup group stage typically sees both sides commit forward.

    Australia

    Form comparison

    Egypt

    3.6
    Form scoreout of 10
    3.1
    Form score: Australia 3.6, Egypt 3.1
    1.00
    Goals scoredper game
    1.40
    Goals scored: Australia 1.00, Egypt 1.40
    1.00
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    0.90
    Goals conceded: Australia 1.00, Egypt 0.90

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    2/5Australia
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Egypt0/5
    2/5Australia
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Egypt0/5
    1.0Australia
    Goals For per game
    Egypt1.4
    1.0Australia
    Goals Against per game
    Egypt0.9
    0Australia
    Win Streakmatches
    Egypt0
    Season averages • Australia: 10 matches • Egypt: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Australia
    Australia
    Mixed3.6/10
    DWLDD
    Over 2.5 goals
    0/5
    BTTS
    2/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    3/5
    Egypt
    Egypt
    Mixed3.1/10
    DWDDL
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    5/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Last 5 meetings
    0W - 1D - 0L from Australia's perspective
    • 03 Jul 2026Australia1-1Egypt
    Australia
    Australia
    Last 5 matches
    • 03 Jul 2026vsEgypt1-1D
    • 26 Jun 2026vsParaguay0-0D
    • 19 Jun 2026vsUSA2-0L
    • 14 Jun 2026vsTürkiye2-0W
    • 06 Jun 2026vsSwitzerland1-1D
    Egypt
    Egypt
    Last 5 matches
    • 07 Jul 2026vsArgentina3-2L
    • 03 Jul 2026vsAustralia1-1D
    • 27 Jun 2026vsIran1-1D
    • 22 Jun 2026vsNew Zealand1-3W
    • 15 Jun 2026vsBelgium1-1D

    Australia vs Egypt: form and season numbers

    Australia take a form score of 3.6 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 3.1 for Egypt. Australia have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5, while Egypt have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in theirs. Across the season Australia average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, Egypt 1.4 and 0.9. Australia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their matches this season, Egypt in 40%. In their last 1 meeting Australia have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 0.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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