ADO Den Haag arrive at this Eredivisie opener carrying a Formatic form rating of 9.3 out of 10, the product of five straight wins through pre-season and two late competitive fixtures from the previous campaign. The visitors put 20 goals past five different opponents across that run, conceding only 5, and found the net in every outing. The sequence includes a 5-1 thrashing of Waalwijk and a 3-1 win at Den Bosch, both competitive Eerste Divisie fixtures in April, followed by three pre-season victories that sustained the rhythm. A 5-1 win away to Laakkwartier, a 3-2 result at KV Mechelen and a 4-0 triumph at Lommel United kept the momentum building into August. Over a seven-match sample this calendar year, Den Haag average 17.6 shots and 7.3 on target per outing, with 1.98 expected goals per game and 57.7 percent possession. They recorded a clean sheet in 30 percent of those fixtures and failed to score in only 10 percent, underlining the consistency at both ends.

AZ Alkmaar present a form rating of 6.6 out of 10, a figure that reflects a solid but less emphatic pre-season. The hosts managed 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat across five July friendlies, scoring 10 and conceding 5. A 4-0 home win over Genk and a 3-2 success against Olympiakos Piraeus offered encouragement, but a 1-0 home loss to Anderlecht and a 1-1 draw at Zulte Waregem tempered the picture. AZ found the net in 4 of those 5 matches and kept a clean sheet in only 1. Their three-match seasonal sample shows 15.7 shots per game, 5.7 on target, 4.7 corners and 57.7 percent possession, matching Den Haag's ball retention. The hosts achieved a clean sheet in 11 percent of fixtures and also failed to score in 11 percent, suggesting a narrower margin for error than their visitors enjoy.

The head to head record over the last 10 meetings tilts heavily toward AZ, who have won 7 to Den Haag's 2, with 1 draw. The fixtures average 2.8 goals, with both teams scoring in 3 of the 10 and over 2.5 goals landing in 6. The five most recent encounters span September 2019 to January 2021 and show AZ dominant: a 4-0 home win in March 2020, a 1-0 away success in September 2019, another 2-1 home victory in January 2021, and a 1-0 defeat at Den Haag in August 2020, with a 2-2 draw in October 2020 the only shared spoils. Four of those five were decided by a single goal or ended level, pointing to tight margins even when AZ held the upper hand.

Den Haag's attacking output through pre-season, 20 goals in 5 matches, dwarfs AZ's 10 from the same sample size, and the visitors' ability to score in every outing contrasts with AZ's single clean sheet. The possession and shots on target profiles are closely matched, but Den Haag's 1.98 expected goals per game and 30 percent clean sheet rate suggest a side arriving in better balance. AZ's historical edge in this fixture offers a counter-narrative, yet seven of those ten meetings predate Den Haag's current form surge and five fall outside the itemised window. The numbers point toward a competitive contest decided by whether AZ's home pedigree can absorb Den Haag's superior rhythm, or whether the visitors' 9.3 form rating translates into a result that rewrites the recent pattern between these sides.