AZ Alkmaar carry a form advantage of 1.77 into this Eredivisie opener, their weighted score of 7.33 out of 10 marking them as strong while Willem II arrive at 5.56, steady but less convincing across a pre-season that has offered limited competitive evidence. The hosts have won 3 of their last 5 fixtures, scoring 10 goals and conceding 5, though all five were friendlies and must be weighed accordingly. That run includes a 4-0 victory over Genk and a 3-2 success against Olympiakos Piraeus, both at home, alongside a 1-1 draw away to Zulte Waregem. The one defeat came against Anderlecht, a narrow 1-0 reverse, but the overarching picture is one of consistent scoring, with goals in 4 of those 5 matches. Only 1 clean sheet in 5 suggests AZ have been willing to trade openness for attacking output, a pattern that fits the season profile showing 15.7 shots per game and 5.7 on target across a 3-match sample, alongside 57.7 percent possession and 4.7 corners.

Willem II have managed 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 4 outings, scoring 6 and conceding 5. Three of those were friendlies, the fourth a 2-1 win away to FC Volendam in the Eerste Divisie back in May, the only competitive fixture in the set. More recently they took a 1-0 friendly win over KV Mechelen, drew 2-2 with FC Eindhoven and lost 1-2 at home to Quick Boys. They have scored in all 4 matches but kept just 1 clean sheet, indicating a similar willingness to leave gaps at the back. The sample is smaller and less recent in competitive terms, and the lack of a settled defensive record may prove costly against a side averaging over 15 shots per match.

The head to head record across the last 10 meetings is tight, with AZ holding 4 wins to Willem II's 3 and 3 draws between them. Those 10 fixtures have produced 3.6 goals per meeting, with both teams scoring in 8 of 10 and over 2.5 goals landing in 7 of 10. The most recent clash saw AZ win 2-0 away on 2 February 2025, while the meeting before that went to Willem II, a 1-2 home victory on 10 November 2024. Further back, a 4-1 AZ triumph on 18 December 2021 and a 2-2 draw on 20 March 2022 reinforce the pattern of goals at both ends. AZ have won 3 of the itemised 5, including a 1-0 away success on 3 April 2021, but the overall split shows Willem II are capable of troubling them.

The shape of this fixture points toward goals, given the defensive fragility in both pre-season campaigns and the historical tendency for open contests between these two. AZ's superior form score, possession numbers and shot volume make them the likelier winners, but the head to head data and Willem II's record of scoring in every recent outing suggest the visitors will not arrive merely to defend. With both teams finding the net in 8 of the last 10 and over 2.5 goals clearing in 7, the value may sit in the goals markets rather than a straightforward home win, particularly given AZ have kept only 1 clean sheet in 5 and Willem II have managed the same in 4.