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    World Cup · kickoff 21:00
    FT 2-2
    Belgium
    Belgium
    DWWWL
    final
    2 - 2
    Senegal
    Senegal
    DLLWL
    how the market sees it finishing
    45%
    Belgium
    29%
    Draw
    26%
    Senegal

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 2 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.

    12.10
    X3.25
    23.60

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultLoss
    Home Win@ 2.10
    Safer: Belgium or draw at 1.28
    7/10
    Belgium's superior form (6.89 vs 3.78) and home advantage (3.1 GPG scored vs Senegal's 1.7 GPG) point to a home victory. World Cup knockout intensity favors the team in better form.
    GoalsWin
    Over 2.5 Goals@ 1.93
    7/10
    Belgium averaging 3.1 GPG creates high-scoring potential. Three total goals in predicted 2-1 scoreline aligns with their attacking output and Senegal's 1.7 GPG contribution.
    Both teams to scoreWin
    Yes@ 1.75
    6/10
    Senegal's 1.7 GPG suggests they can find the net even against stronger opposition. World Cup group stage matches historically see both teams pushing for goals, especially when form gap isn't extreme.

    Belgium

    Form comparison

    Senegal

    6.2
    Form scoreout of 10
    2.9
    Form score: Belgium 6.2, Senegal 2.9
    2.70
    Goals scoredper game
    1.80
    Goals scored: Belgium 2.70, Senegal 1.80
    1.00
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    1.60
    Goals conceded: Belgium 1.00, Senegal 1.60

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    1/5Belgium
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Senegal2/5
    1/5Belgium
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Senegal1/5
    2.7Belgium
    Goals For per game
    Senegal1.8
    1.0Belgium
    Goals Against per game
    Senegal1.6
    0Belgium
    Win Streakmatches
    Senegal0
    Season averages • Belgium: 10 matches • Senegal: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Belgium
    Belgium
    Solid6.2/10
    DWWWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    4/5
    BTTS
    4/5
    Clean sheet
    1/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    Senegal
    Senegal
    Poor2.9/10
    DLLWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    4/5
    BTTS
    3/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    Last 5 meetings
    1W - 0D - 0L from Belgium's perspective
    • 01 Jul 2026Belgium3-2Senegal
    Belgium
    Belgium
    Last 5 matches
    • 10 Jul 2026vsSpain2-1L
    • 07 Jul 2026vsUSA1-4W
    • 01 Jul 2026vsSenegal3-2W
    • 27 Jun 2026vsNew Zealand1-5W
    • 21 Jun 2026vsIran0-0D
    Senegal
    Senegal
    Last 5 matches
    • 01 Jul 2026vsBelgium3-2L
    • 26 Jun 2026vsIraq5-0W
    • 23 Jun 2026vsNorway3-2L
    • 16 Jun 2026vsFrance3-1L
    • 09 Jun 2026vsSaudi Arabia0-0D

    Belgium vs Senegal: form and season numbers

    Belgium take a form score of 6.2 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 2.9 for Senegal. Belgium have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5, while Senegal have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in theirs. Across the season Belgium average 2.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, Senegal 1.8 and 1.6. Belgium have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their matches this season, Senegal in 40%. In their last 1 meeting Belgium have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 0.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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