Bournemouth welcome Everton with a stark form divide separating the sides. The hosts have managed 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5 outings, scoring 10 goals and conceding just 3, while the visitors limp in with 1 win and 3 defeats from their most recent 5, finding the net only 5 times. Formatic's weighted form score captures the gap at 6.89 out of 10 for Bournemouth against a worrying 2.89 for Everton, a 4-point difference that places the hosts in strong form and the visitors in poor.

Bournemouth's recent competitive record shows exactly the kind of consistency that builds momentum. They held Manchester City to a 1-1 draw before taking another point at Nottingham Forest by the same scoreline, and sandwiched between those results came victories at Fulham (1-0) and at home to Crystal Palace (3-0). That run has delivered clean sheets in 2 of the 5 matches and goals in all 5, underlining both defensive solidity and attacking reliability. Over a 9-match sample across all competitions, the hosts average 14.2 shots per game with 4.1 on target, generating 1.81 expected goals per match. They keep a clean sheet in 30 percent of fixtures and fail to score in just 10 percent, numbers that speak to a side comfortable controlling games with 51.3 percent possession and 5.4 corners per outing.

Everton arrive carrying the weight of poor preparation. Their two most recent competitive fixtures ended in defeat: 0-1 at Tottenham and 1-3 at home to Sunderland, the latter a particularly damaging reverse. Pre-season has offered little comfort, with a 0-1 loss at Stoke City followed by a goalless draw at Bolton. Only the 4-0 win away to Dundee in July provides any positive note, but friendlies carry light weight against competitive form. Across those 5 matches, Everton have scored in only 2 and managed clean sheets in 2, a picture of sporadic threat and fragile confidence heading into the new campaign.

The head to head record over the last 10 meetings heavily favours Bournemouth, who have won 7 to Everton's 3 with no draws. The 5 most recent encounters show Bournemouth winning 4, including a 3-0 victory in July 2025, a 2-0 success in February 2025, and a 2-1 win as recently as February 2026. Everton's solitary win in that sequence came 0-1 at home in December 2025, their only bright spot in a run otherwise dominated by the opposition. The fixtures average 2.5 goals, with 6 of the 10 producing over 2.5 goals, though both teams have scored in only 3 of 10, suggesting one-sided outcomes are the norm.

With Bournemouth in strong form, Everton struggling, and the head to head offering no comfort to the visitors, the data points firmly toward a home result. The hosts' ability to score in every recent outing and their dominant sample-size metrics suggest they hold the clearer route to goal, while Everton's failure to score in 3 of their last 5 and their poor form score raise serious questions about their capacity to respond. The gap in confidence, preparation and recent results makes this a fixture where the home advantage carries genuine weight, and the numbers suggest Bournemouth will have too much quality over 90 minutes.