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    World Cup · kickoff 18:00
    FT 2-1
    Brazil
    Brazil
    DWWWL
    final
    2 - 1
    Japan
    Japan
    WDWDL

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultWin
    Home Win@ 1.70
    Safer: Brazil or draw at 1.16
    8/10
    Brazil's superior form (8.67 vs 6.44) and home advantage at the World Cup stage should see them through. Scoring 2.4 GPG with 8.67/10 form against Japan's road defensive vulnerabilities.
    GoalsWin
    Over 2.5 Goals@ 2.04
    7/10
    Brazil averaging 2.4 GPG and Japan 2.0 GPG suggests 4+ combined goals likely. World Cup knockout intensity typically produces attacking football from both quality sides.
    Both teams to scoreWin
    Yes@ 2.00
    7/10
    Japan's 2.0 GPG shows attacking capability even on the road. Brazil have conceded in competitive fixtures despite strong form, and World Cup stage encourages Japan's technical counter-attack.

    Top Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    how the market sees it finishing
    55%
    Brazil
    26%
    Draw
    19%
    Japan

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 2 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.

    11.70
    X3.62
    25.00

    How this scoreline is calculated

    Brazil

    Form comparison

    Japan

    6.2
    Form scoreout of 10
    4.0
    Form score: Brazil 6.2, Japan 4.0
    2.30
    Goals scoredper game
    1.90
    Goals scored: Brazil 2.30, Japan 1.90
    1.10
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    0.70
    Goals conceded: Brazil 1.10, Japan 0.70

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    2/5Brazil
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Japan2/5
    0/5Brazil
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Japan0/5
    2.3Brazil
    Goals For per game
    Japan1.9
    1.1Brazil
    Goals Against per game
    Japan0.7
    0Brazil
    Win Streakmatches
    Japan0
    Season averages • Brazil: 10 matches • Japan: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Brazil
    Brazil
    Solid6.2/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    DWWWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    4/5
    BTTS
    3/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Japan
    Japan
    Mixed4.0/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    WDWDL
    Over 2.5 goals
    3/5
    BTTS
    3/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Last 5 meetings
    4W - 0D - 1L from Brazil's perspective
    • 29 Jun 2026Brazil2-1Japan
    • 14 Oct 2025Japan3-2Brazil
    • 06 Jun 2022Japan0-1Brazil
    • 10 Nov 2017Japan1-3Brazil
    • 15 Jun 2013Brazil3-0Japan
    Brazil
    Brazil
    Last 5 matches
    • 05 Jul 2026vsNorway1-2L
    • 29 Jun 2026vsJapan2-1W
    • 24 Jun 2026vsScotland0-3W
    • 20 Jun 2026vsHaiti3-0W
    • 13 Jun 2026vsMorocco1-1D
    Japan
    Japan
    Last 5 matches
    • 29 Jun 2026vsBrazil2-1L
    • 25 Jun 2026vsSweden1-1D
    • 21 Jun 2026vsTunisia0-4W
    • 14 Jun 2026vsNetherlands2-2D
    • 31 May 2026vsIceland1-0W

    Brazil vs Japan: form and season numbers

    Brazil take a form score of 6.2 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 4.0 for Japan. Brazil have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5, while Japan have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in theirs. Across the season Brazil average 2.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game, Japan 1.9 and 0.7. Brazil have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their matches this season, Japan in 60%. In their last 5 meetings Brazil have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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