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    World Cup · kickoff 21:00
    FT 1-2
    Brazil
    Brazil
    DWWWL
    final
    1 - 2
    Norway
    Norway
    WLWWL
    how the market sees it finishing
    53%
    Brazil
    25%
    Draw
    22%
    Norway

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 2 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.

    11.83
    X3.75
    24.25

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultLoss
    Home Win@ 1.83
    Safer: Brazil or draw at 1.23
    8/10
    Brazil's exceptional form (9.11/10) vs Norway's 6.89/10 combined with home advantage in a World Cup knockout scenario. Brazil averaging 2.4 GPG with defensive solidity.
    GoalsWin
    Over 2.5 Goals@ 1.71
    7/10
    Both sides averaging 2.3-2.4 GPG. World Cup knockout intensity typically produces goals. Predicted 3-goal total aligns with Over 2.5.
    Both teams to scoreWin
    Yes@ 1.66
    7/10
    Norway's 2.3 GPG suggests attacking threat even against elite opposition. World Cup knockout matches rarely end with clean sheets when both teams push forward.

    Brazil

    Form comparison

    Norway

    6.2
    Form scoreout of 10
    5.3
    Form score: Brazil 6.2, Norway 5.3
    2.30
    Goals scoredper game
    1.80
    Goals scored: Brazil 2.30, Norway 1.80
    1.10
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    1.50
    Goals conceded: Brazil 1.10, Norway 1.50

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    2/5Brazil
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Norway0/5
    0/5Brazil
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Norway0/5
    2.3Brazil
    Goals For per game
    Norway1.8
    1.1Brazil
    Goals Against per game
    Norway1.5
    0Brazil
    Win Streakmatches
    Norway0
    Season averages • Brazil: 10 matches • Norway: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Brazil
    Brazil
    Solid6.2/10
    DWWWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    4/5
    BTTS
    3/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Norway
    Norway
    Solid5.3/10
    WLWWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    5/5
    BTTS
    5/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Last 5 meetings
    0W - 0D - 1L from Brazil's perspective
    • 05 Jul 2026Brazil1-2Norway
    Brazil
    Brazil
    Last 5 matches
    • 05 Jul 2026vsNorway1-2L
    • 29 Jun 2026vsJapan2-1W
    • 24 Jun 2026vsScotland0-3W
    • 20 Jun 2026vsHaiti3-0W
    • 13 Jun 2026vsMorocco1-1D
    Norway
    Norway
    Last 5 matches
    • 11 Jul 2026vsEngland1-2L
    • 05 Jul 2026vsBrazil1-2W
    • 30 Jun 2026vsIvory Coast1-2W
    • 26 Jun 2026vsFrance1-4L
    • 23 Jun 2026vsSenegal3-2W

    Brazil vs Norway: form and season numbers

    Brazil take a form score of 6.2 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 5.3 for Norway. Brazil have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5, while Norway have 3 wins and 2 defeats in theirs. Across the season Brazil average 2.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game, Norway 1.8 and 1.5. Brazil have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their matches this season, Norway in 10%. In their last 1 meeting Brazil have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 1.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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