Back to all matches
    World Cup · kickoff 18:00
    FT 0-3
    Canada
    Canada
    DWLWL
    final
    0 - 3
    Morocco
    Morocco
    WWDWL
    how the market sees it finishing
    19%
    Canada
    28%
    Draw
    53%
    Morocco

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 1 - 2

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.

    15.00
    X3.40
    21.75

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultWin
    Away Win@ 1.75
    Safer: Morocco or draw at 1.16
    7/10
    Morocco's superior form (6.44 vs 6.0) and attacking output (2.3 GPG vs 1.7) give them the edge. Away win at 1.8 offers value against a Canada side averaging under 2 goals per game at home.
    GoalsWin
    Over 2.5 Goals@ 2.16
    6/10
    Combined GPG of 4.0 suggests 3+ goals likely. Morocco averaging 2.3 GPG away while Canada have contributed 1.7 at home points to an open contest with goals at both ends.
    Both teams to scoreLoss
    Yes@ 1.98
    6/10
    Canada's 1.7 home GPG indicates they find the net regularly on home soil. Morocco's attacking strength (2.3 GPG) means they're unlikely to keep a clean sheet while scoring themselves.

    Canada

    Form comparison

    Morocco

    4.2
    Form scoreout of 10
    5.3
    Form score: Canada 4.2, Morocco 5.3
    1.50
    Goals scoredper game
    2.20
    Goals scored: Canada 1.50, Morocco 2.20
    0.90
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    0.80
    Goals conceded: Canada 0.90, Morocco 0.80

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    2/5Canada
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Morocco2/5
    1/5Canada
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Morocco1/5
    1.5Canada
    Goals For per game
    Morocco2.2
    0.9Canada
    Goals Against per game
    Morocco0.8
    0Canada
    Win Streakmatches
    Morocco0
    Season averages • Canada: 10 matches • Morocco: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Canada
    Canada
    Mixed4.2/10
    DWLWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    3/5
    BTTS
    2/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    Morocco
    Morocco
    Solid5.3/10
    WWDWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    2/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    Last 5 meetings
    0W - 0D - 2L from Canada's perspective
    • 04 Jul 2026Canada0-3Morocco
    • 01 Dec 2022Canada1-2Morocco
    Canada
    Canada
    Last 5 matches
    • 04 Jul 2026vsMorocco0-3L
    • 28 Jun 2026vsSouth Africa0-1W
    • 24 Jun 2026vsSwitzerland2-1L
    • 18 Jun 2026vsQatar6-0W
    • 12 Jun 2026vsBosnia & Herzegovina1-1D
    Morocco
    Morocco
    Last 5 matches
    • 09 Jul 2026vsFrance2-0L
    • 04 Jul 2026vsCanada0-3W
    • 30 Jun 2026vsNetherlands1-1D
    • 24 Jun 2026vsHaiti4-2W
    • 19 Jun 2026vsScotland0-1W

    Canada vs Morocco: form and season numbers

    Canada take a form score of 4.2 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 5.3 for Morocco. Canada have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5, while Morocco have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in theirs. Across the season Canada average 1.5 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game, Morocco 2.2 and 0.8. Canada have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches this season, Morocco in 40%. In their last 2 meetings Canada have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 2.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

    Tomorrow's top pick, free, the moment it drops

    Every pick is posted to the free Telegram channel before kickoff and the full record stays public, win or lose.

    Join the free Telegram