Our model scores this match once both teams have enough recent form to work from, predictions publish in the days before kickoff. Form, head-to-head and season stats are available in the tabs above now.
How this scoreline is calculated
Castellon
Form comparisonCeuta
Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.
Opposition faced: Castellon mixed, Ceuta mixedThe form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.
- 09 May 2026AD Ceuta FC1-1Castellón
- 14 Sept 2025Castellón3-3AD Ceuta FC
- 11 Feb 2024Castellón2-2AD Ceuta FC
- 15 Oct 2023AD Ceuta FC1-3Castellón
- 28 Sept 2026vsLeganes0-2W
- 19 Sept 2026vsTenerife5-0W
- 12 Sept 2026vsGirona1-2W
- 06 Sept 2026vsAlbacete2-0W
- 31 Aug 2026vsCelta de Vigo II1-2W
- 26 Sept 2026vsReal Sociedad II3-1W
- 20 Sept 2026vsValladolid1-1D
- 11 Sept 2026vsBurgos3-1L
- 05 Sept 2026vsCelta de Vigo II0-2L
- 30 Aug 2026vsMallorca3-0L
Castellon vs Ceuta: form and season numbers
Castellon take a form score of 7.6 out of 10 into this Segunda Division fixture, against 2.5 for Ceuta. Castellon have 5 wins in their last 5, while Ceuta have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in theirs. Across the season Castellon average 1.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game, Ceuta 1.2 and 2.1. Castellon have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their matches this season, Ceuta in 0%. In their last 4 meetings Castellon have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 0. Castellon sit 1st on 19 points, Ceuta 21st on 4.
Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.
Castellon vs Ceuta prediction: table gap meets a leaky defence
Castellon arrive top of Segunda Division on 19 points from 7 matches, a record built on 6 wins and a single draw, and they sit 20 places and 15 points clear of Sunday's visitors. Ceuta occupy 21st with just 4 points from the same number of games, and the gap between the two sides is as wide as the table allows: 15 points separates them heading into kick-off.
Castellon's numbers back up the position. They have scored 14 and conceded only 2 in the league, working out at 2.00 scored and 0.29 conceded per game, and their form band reads strong. The last 10 matches, including friendlies, show 6 wins and 2 draws against 2 losses, with 15 scored and 8 conceded, a clean sheet in 6 of those 10 and goals in 7 of 10. Recent competitive form has been emphatic too: a 5-0 home win over Tenerife, a 2-1 away win at Girona, and a 2-0 away win at Leganes in their last outing on 28 September. The season profile adds detail, 15.6 shots and 5.6 on target per game, 61.4 percent possession, and a clean sheet in 60 percent of matches.
Ceuta's picture is the mirror image. Sitting 21st with a goal difference of minus 11, they have shipped 17 goals in 7 league games at 2.43 per game, and their form band is poor. Across their last 10 matches they managed just 3 wins against 6 losses, with 21 conceded and not a single clean sheet in that run. There have been flickers, a 3-1 home win over Real Sociedad II most recently on 26 September and a 1-1 draw at home to Valladolid the week before, but those sit either side of a 1-3 loss at Burgos, a 0-2 home defeat to Celta de Vigo II, and a 1-5 away loss to FC Andorra. Ceuta still find the net regularly, scoring in 7 of their last 10, but the 0 percent clean sheet rate and 3.6 shots on target per game point to a defence that concedes chances far more often than Castellon's does.
The head to head record offers some resistance to the form gap: of the last 4 meetings, Castellon have won only 1, with the other 3 all draws, and goals have flowed freely, 4.0 per meeting with both teams scoring in all 4 and over 2.5 goals in 3 of those 4. That history suggests Ceuta have found a way to stay competitive in this fixture specifically even while struggling elsewhere, and their record of scoring in 7 of their last 10 fits with the pattern of both teams finding the net in every one of the last 4 head to head clashes. Given Castellon's league-topping defensive record set against a Ceuta side that has failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 straight matches, the platform points toward Castellon controlling possession and chances throughout, but the head to head trend of shared goals leaves the door open for Ceuta to get on the scoresheet even in defeat.
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