Castellon carry a 3.33 form advantage into this Segunda División opener, their weighted last-five score of 7.11 out of 10 classed as strong against Sabadell's patchy 3.78. The hosts have won three of their last five across all competitions, scoring 9 and conceding 6, while maintaining a perfect scoring record in every outing. Their most recent friendly produced a 2-1 win away to Valencia on 25 July, and before that they beat Eibar 2-1 at home in Segunda División action on 31 May. The profile from a 3-match sample shows Castellon average 15.3 shots per game with 5.7 on target, generate 7.7 corners and hold 55.7 percent possession. They manage 1.63 expected goals per match, though clean sheets arrive in only 20 percent of games while they have yet to be shut out in that window. That attacking consistency underpins their edge here, even if the defensive record remains porous.

Sabadell arrive with two wins, a draw and two defeats from their last five, having scored 8 and conceded 4. Both wins came in the Primera División RFEF play-offs: a 4-0 demolition of Zamora at home on 19 June and a 3-0 victory over Real Madrid II on 5 June. Either side of those results, though, they lost 1-0 away to Zamora on 13 June and fell 2-0 at Castellon in a friendly on 18 July, the same fixture they will revisit here. Their most recent outing was a 1-1 draw away to Espanyol on 25 July, another pre-season friendly. Sabadell have scored in only three of their last five and kept two clean sheets in that span, suggesting a side that can be shut down but also capable of shutting opponents out when the pieces fit. The gap in weighted form is significant, and the fact that two of their five results were friendlies dilutes the recent picture further.

Castellon have won five of the last nine meetings between these sides, Sabadell three, with one draw. The head to head averages 2.56 goals per game, and both teams have scored in five of those nine, while four have gone over 2.5 goals. The itemised record favours the hosts heavily: they won 2-0 in the friendly on 18 July, beat Sabadell 3-1 at home on 4 September 2022, and took a 3-1 victory away on 12 March 2022. Sabadell's most recent competitive win in this series came 3-1 at home on 16 April 2023, but before that Castellon lost 1-0 at home on 19 December 2021. The pattern points to home advantage mattering, and Castellon have it here.

The combination of superior form, a 3-match profile built on volume shooting and corner generation, and recent head to head success gives Castellon a clear numerical edge. Sabadell's playoff wins showed they can score freely in the right matchup, but their failure to beat Castellon in the friendly and their inconsistent scoring run leave them vulnerable. The defensive numbers on both sides hint at goals, and the head to head supports that: over 2.5 landed in four of nine, and both teams scored in five. Formatic's model will score this fixture closer to kick-off, but the data already in hand suggests Castellon should press their home edge hard and that total goals merit attention given the 2.56 average and the hosts' perfect scoring streak across five matches.