Celta Vigo open their league campaign with a 3.34-point advantage in Formatic's weighted form ratings, carrying a score of 6.67 out of 10 against Osasuna's troubled 3.33. Osasuna's competitive run closed with four consecutive defeats, including a 1-2 home loss to Espanyol and a 0-1 reverse at Getafe, both narrow margins that still left them on the wrong side of the result. Their sole recent win came in a club friendly against Racing Santander, a 2-0 success that carries lighter weight than the competitive form that preceded it. The visitors scored in 4 of their last 5 outings but managed only 6 goals across that stretch, a return that reflects both their struggles to convert pressure and the defensive lapses that cost them points in three separate fixtures where they conceded twice.

Celta Vigo's pre-season has been tidier, with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5 matches, including a 1-0 victory over Sevilla in La Liga and a 2-2 draw at SC Braga in July. They have scored in all 5 of those fixtures and posted 2 clean sheets, the most recent a 1-0 friendly win over Sporting Gijon. The hosts conceded 6 goals across the same sample, a defensive record that matches Osasuna's attacking output exactly. Their lone blemish in competitive action was a 3-2 home defeat to Levante in May, a match where both sides found the net multiple times in a pattern that has featured in several recent encounters between these clubs. Celta Vigo's ability to score in every outing over the past month suggests a consistency that Osasuna have lacked, and the difference in clean sheets, 2 to 1, tilts the defensive reliability toward the home side as well.

The head to head record across the last 10 meetings stands at 4 wins apiece with 2 draws, a balance that offers no historical advantage to either club. The 5 most recent fixtures have alternated outcomes, with Osasuna winning 2-1 at Celta Vigo in February 2026, Celta Vigo prevailing 3-2 at Osasuna in October 2025, and the hosts taking a 1-0 home win in February 2025. Before that, Osasuna edged a 3-2 home contest in September 2024, and Celta Vigo recorded a 3-0 away victory in February 2024. Across the full 10-match sample, 2.4 goals per meeting and both teams scoring in 4 of 10 point to fixtures that have been tighter than the aggregate suggests, with 5 of 10 clearing 2.5 goals but no overwhelming pattern of high-scoring affairs.

The form differential and the home setting combine to frame this as a fixture where Celta Vigo's recent consistency should translate into control, particularly against visitors who have won only 1 of their last 5 and whose competitive record closed on a winless stretch. Osasuna's 6 goals in 5 matches and Celta Vigo's 7 in the same span suggest modest attacking profiles on both sides, but the hosts have found the net in every outing while the visitors failed to score once. The clean sheet count, 2 for Celta Vigo and 1 for Osasuna, reinforces the defensive edge that the form score already captures. With the head to head series level and no recent meeting producing a draw since well outside this sample, the fixture history points toward a result rather than a share of points, and the current form makes that result favour the home side. Formatic's model will score this fixture closer to kick-off, but the data as it stands suggests a home win inside a low to moderate goal total, with Celta Vigo's consistency across both boxes the key number in a contest where Osasuna arrive with little recent evidence of competitive sharpness.