Celta Vigo welcome Racing Santander to La Liga on Sunday with a form advantage so pronounced it dominates the fixture profile. The hosts arrive with an excellent weighted score of 8.22 out of 10 across their last five outings, while the visitors manage only 4 out of 10, a patchy mark that leaves a gap of 4.22 points between the two sides. That chasm reflects not just results but the manner in which those results arrived, and it frames everything about this contest.

Celta's recent sequence shows 3 wins and 2 draws from 5, unbeaten across the lot, with 6 goals scored and only 3 conceded. They have found the net in all 5 of those matches and kept 3 clean sheets in the process, a defensive solidity that complements their attacking consistency. The run includes a 1-0 home win over Sevilla in La Liga back in May, a 1-1 draw away to Athletic Club, and three subsequent friendlies that returned two more victories and a 2-2 stalemate at SC Braga. The friendly results carry less interpretive weight than competitive fixtures, but the 1-0 wins over Academico Viseu and Sporting Gijon at home still point to a side in the habit of controlling matches and seeing them through. Their season profile, drawn from a 7-match sample, shows 7.1 shots per game, 3.1 of them on target, and an expected goals figure of 1.23. They have registered a clean sheet in 40 percent of games and failed to score in only 10 percent, numbers that describe a side both difficult to beat and reliable in front of goal.

Racing Santander's recent record reads 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from 5, with 10 goals scored but 6 conceded and not a single clean sheet among them. Their competitive results from the Segunda División closing weeks were emphatic: a 4-1 home victory over Cadiz, a 1-1 draw at Malaga, and another 4-1 home win against Valladolid. Those scorelines suggest an attack capable of delivering in bursts, but the summer friendlies tell a different story. A 0-2 defeat at Osasuna and a 1-1 draw at Real Sociedad offer no evidence that the defensive frailties have been addressed, and the absence of any shut-out across the entire sample is a concern when stepping up a division.

The head to head ledger is thin but instructive. The sides have met once in the last recorded window, in January 2025, when Celta won 2-3 away at Racing. That fixture produced 5 goals, saw both teams score, and cleared the 2.5 goal line, a template that aligns with Racing's leaky record and Celta's habit of converting chances. The 5 goals per meeting average from that single encounter is a headline figure, but it rests on a one-match sample and should be read alongside the broader evidence. What matters more is that Celta won when the sides last collided, doing so on the road, and they now enjoy home advantage against opponents who have conceded in every one of their last 5.

Celta's excellence in form, their defensive discipline and their ability to score in every recent outing set them apart from visitors whose attacking bursts have not been matched by rearguard organisation. The 4.22-point form gap is the fixture's central fact, and it points toward a home side capable of controlling this match from the first whistle. Racing will need to find a defensive coherence absent from their recent sample if they are to avoid another afternoon where the scoreboard runs away from them.