Celta Vigo B arrive at this Segunda División opener carrying a 2.67 form advantage over Ceuta, weighted across their respective last five outings. That gap is built on substance rather than noise: the visitors are unbeaten in their last five matches with 2 wins and 3 draws, scoring 9 and conceding 5 across that stretch. Four of those five were competitive play-off fixtures in Primera División RFEF, including a commanding 4-1 home victory over Ponferradina in June after a 0-0 away draw had set the tie up. They also navigated a two-legged play-off against Europa FC, drawing 1-1 away before winning 3-2 at home. The pre-season friendly against Lugo ended 1-1, the only point in that run where they failed to score more than once in a competitive setting. Celta Vigo B kept one clean sheet across the five and found the net in four, suggesting a side comfortable in possession and capable of manufacturing goals even when the opposition settle in.

Ceuta's preparation tells a different story. Their 3.33 out of 10 form rating reflects 2 wins and 3 defeats from five, with 5 scored and 7 conceded. The competitive portion of that run closed in May with a 1-4 home defeat to Malaga, though they did bookend the Segunda División campaign with back-to-back wins: 2-0 away to FC Andorra and 1-0 at home to Albacete. Both were clean sheets, accounting for their two shutouts in five, and both demonstrated a capacity to grind out results when required. Pre-season has been less convincing. They lost 1-2 away to Sevilla in late July and fell 0-1 to Juventud Torremolinos a few days earlier, both friendlies that carried lighter weight but still pointed to a side yet to find rhythm. Ceuta have scored in 4 of their last 5, so the attacking intent is there, but the concession of 7 goals across the same sample leaves gaps that a sharp visiting outfit will look to exploit.

The head to head file is thin but instructive. Celta Vigo B hold 1 win and 1 draw from the two meetings on record, with Ceuta yet to take a fixture. The September 2022 encounter at Ceuta ended 1-3 in the visitors' favour, while the return in May 2023 finished 1-1. Both teams scored in each of those matches, and the pair averaged 3.0 goals per meeting, with 1 of the 2 clearing the 2.5 line. That pattern of open exchanges and shared goal involvement aligns with both sides' recent habits: Ceuta conceding in 3 of 5, Celta Vigo B conceding in 4 of 5, and both finding the net regularly enough to keep scorelines live.

Ceuta's home advantage is the obvious counterweight to the form gap, but the numbers suggest Celta Vigo B carry the sharper edge into the new campaign. The visitors' unbeaten run, built largely on competitive knockout football, offers a platform that two pre-season defeats cannot match. If the head to head rhythm holds and both sides score again, the question becomes which defence bends first. The recent totals point toward the visitors' greater solidity under pressure, and the 2.67 form gap is wide enough to matter when the margins are this fine.