Neither side arrives in sharp form, but the hosts carry a two-point weighted advantage over visitors showing fragile foundations across all five preparatory outings. Ceuta managed 2 wins from their last 5 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 7, while Las Palmas return 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from the same sample, with 4 scored and 6 conceded. Both teams enter without a single clean sheet in their last five, and neither has strung together consecutive victories in any format.

Ceuta closed their competitive fixtures on a mixed note, claiming back-to-back Segunda División victories at home to Albacete (1-0) and away to FC Andorra (2-0) before the summer break, though their pre-season work delivered narrow defeats to Sevilla (1-2) and Juventud Torremolinos (0-1). The hosts have scored in 4 of their last 5 and kept 2 clean sheets across that span, with their heaviest reverse a 1-4 home loss to Malaga in May. The rhythm is patchy but the defensive platform has flickered into life at intervals, and home advantage may prove the decisive edge when form bands sit this close together.

Las Palmas carry a cleaner Segunda División record in their final competitive run, drawing 1-1 away to Malaga and losing 0-1 at home to the same opponent before securing a 2-1 win at Deportivo La Coruña, but their summer schedule offered little encouragement. Defeats to Al-Ittihad FC (1-2 at home) and Orlando Pirates (0-1 away) extended a run that has now seen them fail to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 5 outings. Scoring in only 3 of those 5 matches, the visitors have lacked both consistency in attack and resilience at the back, and that double vulnerability leaves them exposed on the road.

The head to head covers just 2 meetings, with Las Palmas claiming 1 win and 1 draw. The most recent encounter saw Las Palmas dismantle Ceuta 4-0 in March 2026, while the December 2025 fixture finished 1-1. Across those 2 matches, 3.0 goals per meeting have been recorded, with both teams scoring in 1 of 2 and over 2.5 goals landing in 1 of 2. The sample is small, but it underlines Las Palmas' ability to punish the hosts when structure breaks down, and suggests Ceuta will need a tighter performance than they managed seven months ago.

With both sides scoring in 4 of Ceuta's last 5 and conceding in all of Las Palmas' recent run, goals at both ends remain a live prospect despite the brittle form bands. The hosts' marginal form edge and home setting tilt the probability in their favour, but the visitors' 4-0 demolition in the most recent league meeting is a reminder that momentum can shift quickly when defensive discipline falters. The price Formatic eventually sets will hinge on whether it weights that March scoreline or the broader pattern of poor preparation across both squads.