Two sides limping toward the end of their seasons meet in a fixture where recent history points firmly in one direction. Chelsea carry a weighted form score of 3.11 out of 10 into this encounter, patchy by any measure but still a full point clear of Brighton and Hove Albion's 2 out of 10. Both have endured difficult runs, yet the gap in their last five outings suggests the hosts retain marginally more threat as the campaign winds down.

Chelsea have taken 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from their last 5 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 8. They have found the net in 4 of those 5 but have failed to keep a single clean sheet across the sample, leaking goals even in the 2-1 home win over Tottenham and the 1-1 draw at Liverpool. The defeat at Sunderland, 1-2, was their most recent outing, extending a run that included a 0-1 home loss to Manchester City in the FA Cup and a 1-3 reverse against Nottingham Forest. The attacking output remains present but the defensive fragility is glaring, a trait that has cost them repeatedly in May.

Brighton's record over their last 4 fixtures reads 1 win, 0 draws and 3 defeats, with 4 scored and 7 conceded. They managed just 1 clean sheet in that span, the 3-0 home victory over Wolves, which also accounts for three quarters of their goals in the sample. Either side of that win they were blanked in a 0-1 loss at Leeds and a 0-3 home defeat to Manchester United, while they also conceded 3 in the reverse at Newcastle. Scoring in only 2 of their last 4, they have been inconsistent in front of goal and vulnerable at the back, a combination that leaves them on a 2 out of 10 form rating heading into a ground where recent history offers little comfort.

Except recent history here cuts sharply against expectation. The last 10 meetings between these sides are split 5 wins apiece with 0 draws, but the last 5 itemised fixtures tell a more pointed story: Brighton and Hove Albion have won all 5, including a 3-0 victory in April 2026, a 1-3 result in September 2025, and three further wins by margins of 3-0, 2-1 and 4-2. Across the full 10-match sample, 3.8 goals per meeting and over 2.5 goals in 9 of 10 underline the open nature of this fixture, with both teams scoring in 7 of 10.

Chelsea's marginal form edge and home advantage meet a Brighton side that has made this fixture their own in recent seasons despite arriving in poor shape. The head to head pattern and the combined defensive records point toward goals, and the absence of clean sheets in 9 of Chelsea's last 5 and 3 of Brighton's last 4 suggests both sides will be tested. The data indicates a match likely to produce chances at both ends, with the visitors carrying a psychological edge their current form does not obviously support.