Back to all matches
    World Cup · kickoff 02:30
    FT 1-0
    Colombia
    Colombia
    WWDWD
    final
    1 - 0
    Ghana
    Ghana
    DWDLL
    how the market sees it finishing
    67%
    Colombia
    22%
    Draw
    11%
    Ghana

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 2 - 0

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.

    11.40
    X4.33
    28.50

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultWin
    Home Win@ 1.40
    Safer: Colombia or draw at 1.06
    8/10
    Colombia's form advantage is stark, 7.78/10 vs Ghana's 3.33/10. Colombia averaging 1.6 GPG while Ghana manage only 0.6 GPG, and the odds reflect a clear home superiority in a World Cup group stage opener.
    GoalsWin
    Under 2.5 Goals@ 1.72
    7/10
    Ghana's 0.6 GPG suggests limited attacking threat. Colombia will control but may sit on a lead in a tournament opener. 2 total goals fits the pattern, Colombia efficient, Ghana toothless.
    Both teams to scoreWin
    No@ 1.53
    8/10
    Ghana averaging just 0.6 GPG and in poor form (3.33/10), they've struggled to find the net consistently. Colombia's defensive solidity at home makes a clean sheet highly probable.

    Colombia

    Form comparison

    Ghana

    6.4
    Form scoreout of 10
    2.2
    Form score: Colombia 6.4, Ghana 2.2
    1.50
    Goals scoredper game
    0.50
    Goals scored: Colombia 1.50, Ghana 0.50
    0.70
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    1.60
    Goals conceded: Colombia 0.70, Ghana 1.60

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    4/5Colombia
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Ghana2/5
    2/5Colombia
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Ghana2/5
    1.5Colombia
    Goals For per game
    Ghana0.5
    0.7Colombia
    Goals Against per game
    Ghana1.6
    0Colombia
    Win Streakmatches
    Ghana0
    Season averages • Colombia: 10 matches • Ghana: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Colombia
    Colombia
    Solid6.4/10
    WWDWD
    Over 2.5 goals
    1/5
    BTTS
    1/5
    Clean sheet
    4/5
    Scored in
    3/5
    Ghana
    Ghana
    Poor2.2/10
    DWDLL
    Over 2.5 goals
    1/5
    BTTS
    2/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    3/5
    Last 5 meetings
    1W - 0D - 0L from Colombia's perspective
    • 04 Jul 2026Colombia1-0Ghana
    Colombia
    Colombia
    Last 5 matches
    • 07 Jul 2026vsSwitzerland0-0D
    • 04 Jul 2026vsGhana1-0W
    • 27 Jun 2026vsPortugal0-0D
    • 24 Jun 2026vsCongo DR1-0W
    • 18 Jun 2026vsUzbekistan1-3W
    Ghana
    Ghana
    Last 5 matches
    • 04 Jul 2026vsColombia1-0L
    • 27 Jun 2026vsCroatia2-1L
    • 23 Jun 2026vsEngland0-0D
    • 17 Jun 2026vsPanama1-0W
    • 02 Jun 2026vsWales1-1D

    Colombia vs Ghana: form and season numbers

    Colombia take a form score of 6.4 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 2.2 for Ghana. Colombia have 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5, while Ghana have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in theirs. Across the season Colombia average 1.5 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game, Ghana 0.5 and 1.6. Colombia have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their matches this season, Ghana in 20%. In their last 1 meeting Colombia have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 0.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

    Tomorrow's top pick, free, the moment it drops

    Every pick is posted to the free Telegram channel before kickoff and the full record stays public, win or lose.

    Join the free Telegram