Empoli open their Serie B campaign against a Cremonese side that spent the second half of the previous season competing in Serie A, and the recent results of both clubs suggest a competitive fixture despite the league gap that has separated them. Empoli's weighted form score stands at 6.44 out of 10, a steady reading built on 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat across their last 5 matches. Cremonese arrive with a fractionally stronger score of 6.67 out of 10, rating as strong on Formatic's scale, and carrying a form gap of just 0.23 in their favour. The margins are tight enough that the opening exchanges could tilt either way, and both sides bring goals into the fixture from different contexts.

Empoli's recent sequence shows a side that has been hard to break down at home but vulnerable on the road. They recorded back-to-back 1-0 wins, first against Avellino on 1 May in Serie B and then in a friendly against Virtus Entella on 25 July, and kept clean sheets in 2 of their last 5 outings. The 5 goals they scored across that span came in 4 different matches, indicating a spread-out attacking return rather than one explosive performance. The 2-2 draw away to Monza on 8 May and the 1-1 home result against Virtus Entella in April suggest a team that can find the net but also concedes when tested. The 0-2 defeat at Venezia on 25 April remains their only loss in the sample, and the 5 goals conceded overall point to a defence that has been selective about when it locks the door.

Cremonese bring a sharper goals profile, having scored 10 times across their last 5 and kept 3 clean sheets in that span. They found the net in all 5 matches, a run that includes the 4-0 friendly victory over Giana Erminio on 24 July and competitive Serie A fixtures against Udinese, Pisa and Lazio. The 1-0 win at Udinese on 17 May and the 3-0 home success against Pisa on 10 May demonstrate their ability to grind out results and to dominate when conditions allow. The 10 goals scored came despite 2 defeats, the 1-4 home loss to Como on 24 May and the 1-2 setback against Lazio on 4 May, and the 6 conceded show a side that has been tested at the top level but has not collapsed under pressure. The pre-season friendly carries less weight than the Serie A results, but the margin and the clean sheet suggest sharpness heading into the new campaign.

The head to head record across the last 9 meetings shows Empoli with 3 wins to Cremonese's 2, and 4 draws filling out the sample. The 2.22 goals per meeting average sits below the 2.5 threshold, and only 2 of the 9 fixtures have exceeded that line, indicating a pattern of tight contests. Both teams scored in 5 of the 9, a rate that suggests goals at both ends are possible but not guaranteed. The most recent encounter on 14 April 2023 ended 1-0 to Cremonese, while Empoli took the previous meeting 2-0 on 11 November 2022. Earlier in the sequence, the sides shared a 2-2 draw on 13 April 2021, Empoli won 1-0 on 15 December 2020, and they edged a 3-2 thriller on 3 March 2020. The scorelines cluster around single-goal margins and low totals, and that pattern aligns with Empoli's recent defensive solidity and Cremonese's ability to control games without conceding heavily.

Cremonese's form edge is narrow and built partly on friendlies and Serie A fixtures that carry different competitive weight from this Serie B opener. Empoli's home record in the sample, with 2 wins and a draw from 3 outings, suggests they will be organised and difficult to unpick. The goals data points toward a match in which both sides can threaten but neither is likely to run away with the scoreline, and the head to head history supports that reading. Formatic's model will score this fixture closer to kick-off, but the numbers already on the table suggest a contest decided by fine margins, where defensive discipline and a single moment of quality could settle the outcome.