Back to all matches
    World Cup · kickoff 20:00
    FT 1-2
    England
    England
    WWWLW
    final
    1 - 2
    Argentina
    Argentina
    WWWWL
    how the market sees it finishing
    35%
    England
    33%
    Draw
    32%
    Argentina

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 1 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.

    12.70
    X2.88
    23.00

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultLoss
    DC England/Draw@ 1.55
    7/10
    England's tournament form (9.56/10) makes them hard to beat, but Argentina's perfect 10/10 and 3.0 goals a game suggest they won't lose either. Semifinals are typically tight, and with the model leaning 1-1 the double chance covers both likely outcomes.
    GoalsWin
    Over 1.5 Goals@ 1.39
    8/10
    Argentina average 3.0 goals a game this tournament and England 1.8, a combined 4.8. Semifinals between elite nations rarely finish goalless, and the model's 1-1 lean clears Over 1.5 comfortably.
    Both teams to scoreWin
    Yes@ 1.92
    8/10
    Both nations arrive in elite form and both score consistently in tournament football: Argentina at 3.0 goals a game, England at 1.8. The model's predicted 1-1 has both sides finding the net.

    England

    Form comparison

    Argentina

    7.3
    Form scoreout of 10
    6.7
    Form score: England 7.3, Argentina 6.7
    2.40
    Goals scoredper game
    2.40
    Goals scored: England 2.40, Argentina 2.40
    1.20
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    0.80
    Goals conceded: England 1.20, Argentina 0.80

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    0/5England
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Argentina0/5
    0/5England
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Argentina1/5
    2.4England
    Goals For per game
    Argentina2.4
    1.2England
    Goals Against per game
    Argentina0.8
    1England
    Win Streakmatches
    Argentina0
    Season averages • England: 10 matches • Argentina: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    England
    England
    Solid7.3/10
    WWWLW
    Over 2.5 goals
    5/5
    BTTS
    5/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Argentina
    Argentina
    Solid6.7/10
    WWWWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    4/5
    BTTS
    4/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    Last 5 meetings
    0W - 0D - 1L from England's perspective
    • 15 Jul 2026England1-2Argentina
    England
    England
    Last 5 matches
    • 18 Jul 2026vsFrance4-6W
    • 15 Jul 2026vsArgentina1-2L
    • 11 Jul 2026vsNorway1-2W
    • 06 Jul 2026vsMexico2-3W
    • 01 Jul 2026vsCongo DR2-1W
    Argentina
    Argentina
    Last 5 matches
    • 19 Jul 2026vsSpain1-0L
    • 15 Jul 2026vsEngland1-2W
    • 12 Jul 2026vsSwitzerland3-1W
    • 07 Jul 2026vsEgypt3-2W
    • 03 Jul 2026vsCape Verde Islands3-2W

    England vs Argentina: form and season numbers

    England take a form score of 7.3 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 6.7 for Argentina. England have 4 wins and 1 defeat in their last 5, while Argentina have 4 wins and 1 defeat in theirs. Across the season England average 2.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, Argentina 2.4 and 0.8. England have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their matches this season, Argentina in 40%. In their last 1 meeting England have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 1.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

    Tomorrow's top pick, free, the moment it drops

    Every pick is posted to the free Telegram channel before kickoff and the full record stays public, win or lose.

    Join the free Telegram