AZ Alkmaar arrive with a 4-point form advantage over Fortuna Sittard on Formatic's weighted scale, rating 7.33 out of 10 against the hosts' 3.33, and the pattern of recent meetings supports that gulf. The visitors have won 8 of the last 10 fixtures between these sides, with Fortuna managing only 2 victories and no draws across that sample. The most recent encounter saw AZ prevail 2-0 in April 2026, while the meeting before that produced a 4-3 win for Fortuna in December 2025, one of 7 fixtures from the last 10 to clear 2.5 goals. At 3.1 goals per meeting and both teams scoring in 5 of those 10, the head to head record suggests open contests even when the table gap is wide.

Fortuna's pre-season has yielded 2 wins and 3 defeats across 5 friendlies, scoring 5 and conceding 9. They opened with a 1-0 home win over K. Lierse S.K. On 3 July, followed by a 2-1 victory against Genk at home on 11 July, but have since lost 1-3 away to Olympiakos Piraeus on 17 July and 1-3 away to Metz on 25 July. Their final competitive outing before the summer break was a 0-2 defeat at Utrecht in May. Fortuna have found the net in 4 of their last 5 outings but kept just 1 clean sheet, and that defensive fragility against sides from stronger leagues suggests vulnerability when the Eredivisie campaign begins. A 3.33 form score falls into the poor band, and the nine goals conceded across five warm-up fixtures point to a backline still searching for cohesion.

AZ Alkmaar's preparation has been sharper, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their 5 friendlies, scoring 10 and conceding 5. They beat Almere City 2-1 at home on 11 July, lost 0-1 at home to Anderlecht on 15 July, drew 1-1 away to Zulte Waregem on 18 July, then closed with back-to-back home wins: 4-0 against Genk on 22 July and 3-2 against Olympiakos Piraeus on 25 July. AZ have scored in 4 of those 5 matches and kept 1 clean sheet, but more significantly they have posted double-digit goals while maintaining a positive goal difference. Their 7.33 form rating sits in the strong band, and the contrast with Fortuna's poor score of 3.33 creates the largest form gap on the slate.

The head to head sequence includes a 1-0 Fortuna win in October 2024, a 1-2 AZ victory at Fortuna in February 2024, and a 1-0 AZ win in February 2025, illustrating that even when Fortuna have claimed rare victories, the margins have been tight and goals have been scarce on one side or the other. The 4-3 scoreline from December 2025 remains the outlier in a run otherwise dominated by AZ control. With both teams scoring in exactly half the last 10 meetings and 7 of those 10 clearing 2.5 goals, the historical template points toward open play, but the current form trajectories suggest AZ will control territory and tempo. Fortuna have conceded in 4 of their last 5 and AZ have scored in 4 of theirs, which aligns with the head to head pattern of frequent goals but lopsided outcomes. The data points to an away win in a fixture that produces goals more often than it produces stalemate.