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    World Cup · kickoff 22:00
    FT 4-6
    France
    France
    WWWLL
    final
    4 - 6
    England
    England
    WWWLW
    how the market sees it finishing
    51%
    France
    24%
    Draw
    25%
    England

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 2 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.

    11.85
    X4.00
    23.75

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultLoss
    Home Win@ 1.85
    Safer: France or draw at 1.26
    7/10
    France averaging 2.3 GPG across the knockout stage. Both teams sit at identical 6.67/10 form, but France's superior attacking output (2.3 vs 1.8 GPG) tips the balance in the model's predicted 2-1.
    GoalsWin
    Over 2.5 Goals@ 1.44
    7/10
    Combined 4.1 GPG average between the sides. World Cup knockout matches between elite nations typically produce goals: France 2.3 GPG and England 1.8 GPG suggest open play with both attacking.
    Both teams to scoreWin
    Yes@ 1.44
    8/10
    England's 1.8 GPG indicates consistent scoring threat. France vs England knockout history shows both sides typically find the net: the predicted 2-1 scoreline reflects England's ability to score despite losing.

    France

    Form comparison

    England

    4.0
    Form scoreout of 10
    7.3
    Form score: France 4.0, England 7.3
    2.40
    Goals scoredper game
    2.40
    Goals scored: France 2.40, England 2.40
    1.30
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    1.20
    Goals conceded: France 1.30, England 1.20

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    3/5France
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    England0/5
    1/5France
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    England0/5
    2.4France
    Goals For per game
    England2.4
    1.3France
    Goals Against per game
    England1.2
    0France
    Win Streakmatches
    England1
    Season averages • France: 10 matches • England: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    France
    France
    Mixed4.0/10
    WWWLL
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    1/5
    Clean sheet
    3/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    England
    England
    Solid7.3/10
    WWWLW
    Over 2.5 goals
    5/5
    BTTS
    5/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Last 5 meetings
    2W - 1D - 1L from France's perspective
    • 18 Jul 2026France4-6England
    • 10 Dec 2022England1-2France
    • 13 Jun 2017France3-2England
    • 11 Jun 2012France1-1England
    France
    France
    Last 5 matches
    • 18 Jul 2026vsEngland4-6L
    • 14 Jul 2026vsSpain0-2L
    • 09 Jul 2026vsMorocco2-0W
    • 04 Jul 2026vsParaguay0-1W
    • 30 Jun 2026vsSweden3-0W
    England
    England
    Last 5 matches
    • 18 Jul 2026vsFrance4-6W
    • 15 Jul 2026vsArgentina1-2L
    • 11 Jul 2026vsNorway1-2W
    • 06 Jul 2026vsMexico2-3W
    • 01 Jul 2026vsCongo DR2-1W

    France vs England: form and season numbers

    France take a form score of 4.0 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 7.3 for England. France have 3 wins and 2 defeats in their last 5, while England have 4 wins and 1 defeat in theirs. Across the season France average 2.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game, England 2.4 and 1.2. France have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their matches this season, England in 40%. In their last 4 meetings France have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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