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    World Cup · kickoff 20:00
    FT 0-2
    France
    France
    WWWLL
    final
    0 - 2
    Spain
    Spain
    WWWWW
    how the market sees it finishing
    39%
    France
    30%
    Draw
    31%
    Spain

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 2 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.

    12.38
    X3.20
    23.10

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultLoss
    Home Win@ 2.38
    Safer: France or draw at 1.36
    7/10
    France arrive at 10/10 tournament form with the stronger attacking output (2.5 goals a game to Spain's 1.8). On neutral ground the model backs France's defensive solidity to contain Spain's lower scoring rate, which makes 2.38 a value price against the form-table leaders.
    GoalsLoss
    Over 2.5 Goals@ 1.92
    7/10
    France averaging 2.5 GPG and Spain 1.8 GPG suggests 3+ total goals. World Cup knockout clashes between elite nations historically exceed 2.5 when both teams are in peak form (10/10).
    Both teams to scoreLoss
    Yes@ 1.66
    8/10
    Spain's 1.8 GPG indicates they consistently find the net even against top opposition. France's attacking focus (2.5 GPG) can leave gaps for Spain's technical players to exploit.

    France

    Form comparison

    Spain

    4.0
    Form scoreout of 10
    10.0
    Form score: France 4.0, Spain 10.0
    2.40
    Goals scoredper game
    1.80
    Goals scored: France 2.40, Spain 1.80
    1.30
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    0.30
    Goals conceded: France 1.30, Spain 0.30

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    3/5France
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Spain4/5
    1/5France
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Spain0/5
    2.4France
    Goals For per game
    Spain1.8
    1.3France
    Goals Against per game
    Spain0.3
    0France
    Win Streakmatches
    Spain7
    Season averages • France: 10 matches • Spain: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    France
    France
    Mixed4.0/10
    WWWLL
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    1/5
    Clean sheet
    3/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    Spain
    Spain
    Excellent10.0/10
    WWWWW
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    1/5
    Clean sheet
    4/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Last 5 meetings
    1W - 0D - 5L from France's perspective
    • 14 Jul 2026France0-2Spain
    • 05 Jun 2025Spain5-4France
    • 09 Jul 2024Spain2-1France
    • 10 Oct 2021Spain1-2France
    • 28 Mar 2017France0-2Spain
    France
    France
    Last 5 matches
    • 18 Jul 2026vsEngland4-6L
    • 14 Jul 2026vsSpain0-2L
    • 09 Jul 2026vsMorocco2-0W
    • 04 Jul 2026vsParaguay0-1W
    • 30 Jun 2026vsSweden3-0W
    Spain
    Spain
    Last 5 matches
    • 19 Jul 2026vsArgentina1-0W
    • 14 Jul 2026vsFrance0-2W
    • 10 Jul 2026vsBelgium2-1W
    • 06 Jul 2026vsPortugal0-1W
    • 02 Jul 2026vsAustria3-0W

    France vs Spain: form and season numbers

    France take a form score of 4.0 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 10.0 for Spain. France have 3 wins and 2 defeats in their last 5, while Spain have 5 wins in theirs. Across the season France average 2.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game, Spain 1.8 and 0.3. France have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their matches this season, Spain in 70%. In their last 6 meetings France have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 5.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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