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    World Cup · kickoff 22:00
    FT 3-0
    France
    France
    WWWLL
    final
    3 - 0
    Sweden
    Sweden
    DWLDL
    how the market sees it finishing
    73%
    France
    17%
    Draw
    10%
    Sweden

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 3 - 0

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.

    11.29
    X5.75
    210.00

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultWin
    Home Win@ 1.29
    Safer: France or draw at 1.05
    8/10
    France at 9.33/10 form vs Sweden's 3.56/10 creates a massive 5.77 form advantage. France scoring 2.8 GPG while Sweden manages only 1.8 GPG away from home in a World Cup knockout context heavily favours the hosts.
    GoalsWin
    Over 2.5 Goals@ 1.44
    7/10
    France's 2.8 GPG output at home should comfortably push this over 2.5 goals even if Sweden fail to contribute. World Cup knockout urgency typically sees dominant sides run up the score against weaker opposition.
    Both teams to scoreWin
    No@ 1.91
    7/10
    Sweden's poor 3.56/10 form and France's tournament defensive structure suggest a one-sided affair. Home clean sheet likely given the 5.77 form differential and Sweden's limited attacking threat at 1.8 GPG.

    France

    Form comparison

    Sweden

    4.0
    Form scoreout of 10
    2.4
    Form score: France 4.0, Sweden 2.4
    2.40
    Goals scoredper game
    1.80
    Goals scored: France 2.40, Sweden 1.80
    1.30
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    2.30
    Goals conceded: France 1.30, Sweden 2.30

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    3/5France
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Sweden0/5
    1/5France
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Sweden1/5
    2.4France
    Goals For per game
    Sweden1.8
    1.3France
    Goals Against per game
    Sweden2.3
    0France
    Win Streakmatches
    Sweden0
    Season averages • France: 10 matches • Sweden: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    France
    France
    Mixed4.0/10
    WWWLL
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    1/5
    Clean sheet
    3/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    Sweden
    Sweden
    Poor2.4/10
    DWLDL
    Over 2.5 goals
    4/5
    BTTS
    4/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    Last 5 meetings
    4W - 0D - 2L from France's perspective
    • 30 Jun 2026France3-0Sweden
    • 17 Nov 2020France4-2Sweden
    • 05 Sept 2020Sweden0-1France
    • 09 Jun 2017Sweden2-1France
    • 11 Nov 2016France2-1Sweden
    France
    France
    Last 5 matches
    • 18 Jul 2026vsEngland4-6L
    • 14 Jul 2026vsSpain0-2L
    • 09 Jul 2026vsMorocco2-0W
    • 04 Jul 2026vsParaguay0-1W
    • 30 Jun 2026vsSweden3-0W
    Sweden
    Sweden
    Last 5 matches
    • 30 Jun 2026vsFrance3-0L
    • 25 Jun 2026vsJapan1-1D
    • 20 Jun 2026vsNetherlands5-1L
    • 15 Jun 2026vsTunisia5-1W
    • 04 Jun 2026vsGreece2-2D

    France vs Sweden: form and season numbers

    France take a form score of 4.0 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 2.4 for Sweden. France have 3 wins and 2 defeats in their last 5, while Sweden have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in theirs. Across the season France average 2.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game, Sweden 1.8 and 2.3. France have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their matches this season, Sweden in 0%. In their last 6 meetings France have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 2.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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