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    World Cup · kickoff 21:30
    FT 1-1
    Germany
    Germany
    WWWLD
    final
    1 - 1
    Paraguay
    Paraguay
    LWDDL
    how the market sees it finishing
    71%
    Germany
    19%
    Draw
    10%
    Paraguay

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 3 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.

    11.33
    X5.00
    29.00

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultLoss
    Home Win@ 1.33
    Safer: Germany or draw at 1.05
    8/10
    Germany averaging 3.1 GPG with 6.67/10 form against Paraguay's poor away record (1.3 GPG, 5.11/10 form). World Cup stage favours the stronger side at home.
    GoalsLoss
    Over 2.5 Goals@ 1.71
    8/10
    Germany's 3.1 GPG combined with Paraguay's defensive frailties (conceding regularly on road). Four total goals in predicted score supports Over 2.5.
    Both teams to scoreWin
    Yes@ 2.10
    6/10
    Paraguay have shown ability to score (1.3 GPG) even against stronger opposition. Germany may ease off after establishing lead, allowing consolation goal.

    Germany

    Form comparison

    Paraguay

    5.1
    Form scoreout of 10
    2.9
    Form score: Germany 5.1, Paraguay 2.9
    3.10
    Goals scoredper game
    1.20
    Goals scored: Germany 3.10, Paraguay 1.20
    1.00
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    1.10
    Goals conceded: Germany 1.00, Paraguay 1.10

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    0/5Germany
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Paraguay2/5
    0/5Germany
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Paraguay2/5
    3.1Germany
    Goals For per game
    Paraguay1.2
    1.0Germany
    Goals Against per game
    Paraguay1.1
    0Germany
    Win Streakmatches
    Paraguay0
    Season averages • Germany: 10 matches • Paraguay: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Germany
    Germany
    Solid5.1/10
    WWWLD
    Over 2.5 goals
    4/5
    BTTS
    5/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Paraguay
    Paraguay
    Poor2.9/10
    LWDDL
    Over 2.5 goals
    1/5
    BTTS
    2/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    3/5
    Last 5 meetings
    0W - 1D - 0L from Germany's perspective
    • 29 Jun 2026Germany1-1Paraguay
    Germany
    Germany
    Last 5 matches
    • 29 Jun 2026vsParaguay1-1D
    • 25 Jun 2026vsEcuador2-1L
    • 20 Jun 2026vsIvory Coast2-1W
    • 14 Jun 2026vsCuraçao7-1W
    • 06 Jun 2026vsUSA1-2W
    Paraguay
    Paraguay
    Last 5 matches
    • 04 Jul 2026vsFrance0-1L
    • 29 Jun 2026vsGermany1-1D
    • 26 Jun 2026vsAustralia0-0D
    • 20 Jun 2026vsTürkiye0-1W
    • 13 Jun 2026vsUSA4-1L

    Germany vs Paraguay: form and season numbers

    Germany take a form score of 5.1 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 2.9 for Paraguay. Germany have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5, while Paraguay have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in theirs. Across the season Germany average 3.1 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, Paraguay 1.2 and 1.1. Germany have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their matches this season, Paraguay in 40%. In their last 1 meeting Germany have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 0.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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