Nurnberg arrive with an excellent form rating of 8.3 out of 10, comfortably ahead of Greuther Furth's strong 6.8 mark, setting up a fixture where the visitors' momentum meets a home side who have shown patches of quality themselves. The 1.5-point form gap in Nurnberg's favour reflects a striking difference in attacking output through recent weeks, with Nurnberg putting 23 goals past five opponents while conceding 8, against Greuther Furth's 11 scored and 4 conceded across the same sample. Nurnberg have scored in all 5 of their last fixtures and averaged 4.6 goals per outing, even allowing for the fact that four of those matches were club friendlies rather than competitive contests. Greuther Furth scored in 4 of their last 5, managed 4 wins from that run, and kept clean sheets in 2 of the 5, but the volume and consistency of their goalscoring has not matched what Nurnberg have delivered.

Greuther Furth's season profile shows them averaging 15.7 shots per game from a 6-match sample, generating 4.5 shots on target and 1.85 expected goals per outing with 54.7 percent possession. They failed to score in 20 percent of their fixtures and kept clean sheets in 30 percent, a defensive record that sits level with Nurnberg's but comes with a more cautious attacking footprint. Their most recent competitive result was a 2-0 home win over Rot-Weiß Essen on 26 May 2026, and their pre-season work included victories of 3-0 away to Eltersdorf, 3-1 away to Eintracht Bamberg and 3-2 away to FC Zurich, interrupted only by a 0-1 defeat away to Bayreuth on 5 July. The pattern suggests a side capable of controlling possession and creating chances, but one that has not yet lit up the scoresheet with the same frequency as their opponents.

Nurnberg's season sample spans 4 matches, producing 15.5 shots per game, 4.2 on target and 1.23 expected goals per outing, with 50 percent possession and 10.5 fouls conceded. They failed to score in just 10 percent of fixtures and held clean sheets in 30 percent. Their last competitive outing was a 3-3 draw away to Hannover 96 on 17 May 2026, and their pre-season schedule delivered a 10-0 victory away to Kornburg on 8 July, a 5-1 win away to Ansbach on 11 July, a 3-2 home success against Waldhof Mannheim on 18 July, and a 2-2 draw away to Palermo on 25 July. The sheer weight of goals scored, even in friendlies, points to an attack firing on multiple cylinders, and the expected goals figure of 1.23 per game suggests they are creating chances of genuine quality rather than relying on volume alone.

The head to head record across the last 10 meetings is perfectly balanced at 3 wins apiece and 4 draws, with 3.0 goals per meeting and both teams scoring in 6 of the 10. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of 10, and the most recent five encounters have delivered one Greuther Furth win, two Nurnberg victories and two draws. The latest fixture on 3 May 2026 finished 1-1, the December meeting ended 2-2, and before that Nurnberg won 3-0 on 16 March 2025 and 4-0 on 20 October 2024, either side of a 2-1 Greuther Furth victory on 25 February 2024. The pattern shows Nurnberg capable of significant away wins in this fixture, but also reveals that neither side has established clear dominance, with 7 of the 10 producing either a draw or a margin of one goal.

The numbers point toward a contest where Nurnberg's superior recent form and attacking volume meet a Greuther Furth side who have been solid rather than spectacular. Greuther Furth's higher possession average and expected goals per game suggest they will create opportunities, but Nurnberg's record of scoring in every one of their last 5 outings and their ability to rack up heavy wins away from home in this head to head series gives them a clear edge in the market. The head to head profile of 3.0 goals per meeting and both teams scoring in 6 of 10 suggests there is value in expecting goals at both ends, and the fact that 6 of the last 10 went over 2.5 goals aligns with the attacking form both sides bring into this fixture.