Castellon arrive at this Segunda División fixture with an unblemished head-to-head record over Leganés that stretches across four meetings and more than five years. The visitors have won three and drawn one, never conceding more than twice and shutting Leganés out on three occasions. That 2-0 scoreline appears twice in the sequence, most recently in January 2026 when Castellon took the points at home, and again in October 2020. The solitary draw came in March 2021, a 0-0 stalemate, while Leganés also fell 1-0 at home in September 2025. Across those four fixtures, both teams have scored in none, and over 2.5 goals has landed in none, with an average of just 1.25 goals per meeting. That pattern of low-scoring affairs dominated by Castellon represents a significant psychological and statistical hurdle for the hosts to overcome.

Leganés enter this match with a Formatic weighted form score of 3.78 out of 10, a patchy return built entirely on pre-season friendlies. Their last five outings produced 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 4 goals scored and 6 conceded. They found the net in 3 of those 5 matches and kept clean sheets in 3, though the defensive solidity came in a pair of goalless draws against Nacional and Albacete, both friendlies staged in mid-July. The win arrived via a 2-0 result away to Penafiel on 24 July, but the losses were more telling: a 2-1 defeat at Levante on 11 July and a heavy 4-1 reverse away to Real Madrid on 28 July. That final pre-season test exposed defensive frailties that Castellon will be well equipped to exploit, particularly given the visitors have scored in every one of their last five matches.

Castellon's form rating of 7.11 out of 10 marks them as strong and creates a form gap of 3.33 in their favour, the widest differential on the fixture card. The visitors registered 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss across their last five, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Crucially, they have scored in all 5 matches and kept 1 clean sheet, that 2-0 home win over Sabadell on 18 July. Their recent schedule mixed competitive Segunda División fixtures with friendlies: they beat Valencia 2-1 away on 25 July, defeated Sabadell 2-0, then lost 3-2 away to Almeria in a league fixture on 9 June before drawing 1-1 at home to the same opponents three days earlier. A 2-1 home win over Eibar on 31 May rounds out the sample. Over a 3-match competitive sample this season, Castellon average 15.3 shots per game, 5.7 on target, and generate 1.63 expected goals with 55.7 percent possession. They maintain 7.7 corners per match and commit 14.7 fouls, picking up 1 yellow card per outing. They have kept a clean sheet in 20 percent of those games and failed to score in 0 percent, underlining an attacking consistency that Leganés have struggled to contain historically.

The head-to-head ledger and the current form profiles point in the same direction. Castellon have won when sharper than this and when less clinical, and Leganés have never broken through in four attempts. The visitors' ability to score in every recent outing, coupled with a season profile that delivers nearly six shots on target per match, suggests they will create chances even if the contest remains as tight as precedent indicates. With both teams scoring in none of the last four meetings and over 2.5 goals also absent from all four, the fixture has historically been decided by narrow margins and Castellon's greater efficiency in the final third. Leganés must overturn not only a lopsided head-to-head but also a form gap of more than three points if they are to avoid a fifth consecutive defeat in this series.