Mallorca begin their Segunda División campaign against Ceuta on Sunday with a form advantage of 2.89 on Formatic's weighted scale, the hosts rated at 6.22 out of 10 against visitors languishing at 3.33. That gap reflects sharply divergent preparation: Mallorca closed their previous La Liga season with 2 wins from their final 5 competitive fixtures and have carried that momentum into pre-season with a 3-0 friendly win over Al-Fateh, while Ceuta stumbled through summer with defeats to Sevilla and Juventud Torremolinos in warm-up games and managed only 2 wins from their last 5 overall.

The hosts' recent record shows 8 goals scored and 6 conceded across those 5 matches, with clean sheets against Al-Fateh and Oviedo suggesting defensive organisation even as results fluctuated. A 3-0 home win over Oviedo on 23 May underlined their potency at this venue, though that confidence took knocks in a 0-2 loss at Levante and a 1-3 defeat away to Getafe. Mallorca scored in 4 of the 5, a consistency that should unsettle a Ceuta defence conceding at a steady clip. The 1-1 draw at home to Villarreal showed resilience against a side with quality, and the pattern across the spring was one of home strength punctuated by away fragility, a profile that bodes well for a fixture they host.

Ceuta arrive with 5 goals scored and 7 conceded from their last 5, a narrow ledger that masks deeper struggles. Their competitive form in Segunda División delivered contrasting signals: a 1-0 home win over Albacete and a 2-0 away success at FC Andorra pointed to a side capable of shutting opponents out, but a 1-4 home capitulation against Malaga on 16 May exposed brittleness when the contest turns against them. The summer friendlies compounded concerns, with a 1-2 reverse at Sevilla and a 0-1 loss to Juventud Torremolinos offering little evidence of tactical refinement or attacking fluency. Ceuta also recorded 2 clean sheets from 5, same as their hosts, but the context matters: those shutouts came in victories that have now receded into memory, and the recent trend is one of narrow defeats rather than building momentum.

Mallorca's 6.22 form score reflects steady rather than spectacular preparation, yet it towers over Ceuta's 3.33, a rating firmly in poor territory. The visitors scored in 4 of their last 5, matching the hosts on that measure, but the manner of those goals and the fragility around them suggest a side still searching for cohesion. Mallorca conceded 6 across the same sample, Ceuta 7, and while neither defence arrives in impregnable shape, the home side's greater attacking output and the weight of their 3-0 win over Oviedo at this ground tips the balance. Ceuta's 2 wins from 5 pale against the backdrop of their summer reverses, and their failure to register a single draw in that stretch hints at a team lacking the resilience to grind out points when conditions turn.

The form gap of 2.89 is the sharpest number in this preview, and it frames a fixture where one side enters with steady preparation and home advantage against visitors mired in poor form and carrying the scars of a 1-4 home hammering into the off-season. Mallorca's ability to score in 4 of 5 and deliver two clean sheets suggests the platform for control, while Ceuta's 3.33 rating and unconvincing summer leave them chasing a contest that the data suggests has already tilted. The goals profile points toward a home side capable of multiple strikes, and Ceuta's record of conceding in 3 of their last 5 offers little reason to expect resistance that their recent performances have not demonstrated.