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    World Cup · kickoff 02:00
    FT 2-0
    Mexico
    Mexico
    WWWWL
    final
    2 - 0
    Ecuador
    Ecuador
    WLDWL
    how the market sees it finishing
    42%
    Mexico
    33%
    Draw
    25%
    Ecuador

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 2 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.

    12.20
    X2.84
    23.80

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultWin
    Home Win@ 2.20
    Safer: Mexico or draw at 1.24
    8/10
    Mexico in perfect 10/10 form scoring 2.0 GPG at home venue. Ecuador away form drops to 6.22/10 with only 1.2 GPG, a 3.78 form differential heavily favors the hosts in a World Cup knockout atmosphere.
    GoalsLoss
    Over 2.5 Goals@ 2.75
    7/10
    Mexico averaging 2.0 GPG combined with Ecuador's 1.2 GPG suggests 3+ total goals. World Cup knockout intensity typically produces open play and both sides needing to attack.
    Both teams to scoreLoss
    Yes@ 2.30
    7/10
    Ecuador maintaining 1.2 GPG even in lower form indicates scoring ability. Mexico's attacking focus (2.0 GPG) may leave gaps, World Cup knockouts rarely see one-sided shutouts at this stage.

    Mexico

    Form comparison

    Ecuador

    6.7
    Form scoreout of 10
    4.0
    Form score: Mexico 6.7, Ecuador 4.0
    1.90
    Goals scoredper game
    1.10
    Goals scored: Mexico 1.90, Ecuador 1.10
    0.50
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    0.70
    Goals conceded: Mexico 0.50, Ecuador 0.70

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    4/5Mexico
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Ecuador2/5
    0/5Mexico
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Ecuador3/5
    1.9Mexico
    Goals For per game
    Ecuador1.1
    0.5Mexico
    Goals Against per game
    Ecuador0.7
    0Mexico
    Win Streakmatches
    Ecuador0
    Season averages • Mexico: 10 matches • Ecuador: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Mexico
    Mexico
    Solid6.7/10
    WWWWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    1/5
    Clean sheet
    4/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Ecuador
    Ecuador
    Mixed4.0/10
    WLDWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    1/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    2/5
    Last 5 meetings
    2W - 3D - 2L from Mexico's perspective
    • 01 Jul 2026Mexico2-0Ecuador
    • 15 Oct 2025Mexico1-1Ecuador
    • 01 Jul 2024Mexico0-0Ecuador
    • 05 Jun 2022Mexico0-0Ecuador
    • 28 Oct 2021Mexico2-3Ecuador
    Mexico
    Mexico
    Last 5 matches
    • 06 Jul 2026vsEngland2-3L
    • 01 Jul 2026vsEcuador2-0W
    • 25 Jun 2026vsCzechia0-3W
    • 19 Jun 2026vsSouth Korea1-0W
    • 11 Jun 2026vsSouth Africa2-0W
    Ecuador
    Ecuador
    Last 5 matches
    • 01 Jul 2026vsMexico2-0L
    • 25 Jun 2026vsGermany2-1W
    • 21 Jun 2026vsCuraçao0-0D
    • 14 Jun 2026vsIvory Coast1-0L
    • 07 Jun 2026vsGuatemala3-0W

    Mexico vs Ecuador: form and season numbers

    Mexico take a form score of 6.7 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 4.0 for Ecuador. Mexico have 4 wins and 1 defeat in their last 5, while Ecuador have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in theirs. Across the season Mexico average 1.9 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game, Ecuador 1.1 and 0.7. Mexico have kept a clean sheet in 70% of their matches this season, Ecuador in 40%. In their last 7 meetings Mexico have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 2.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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