Back to all matches
    World Cup · kickoff 01:00
    FT 2-3
    Mexico
    Mexico
    WWWWL
    final
    2 - 3
    England
    England
    WWWLW
    how the market sees it finishing
    30%
    Mexico
    30%
    Draw
    40%
    England

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 1 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.

    13.10
    X3.10
    22.40

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultLoss
    DC Mexico/Draw@ 1.85
    7/10
    Mexico in exceptional form (10/10) on home soil with strong crowd support at World Cup. England solid (8.67/10) but historically struggle in high-pressure knockout matches. H2H and tournament context favor draw or narrow Mexico edge.
    GoalsWin
    Over 1.5 Goals@ 1.44
    8/10
    Mexico averaging 2.1 GPG, England 1.7 GPG. World Cup knockout matches typically see both teams create chances. Combined 3.8 GPG average points to 2+ goals.
    Both teams to scoreWin
    Yes@ 1.96
    7/10
    Both nations have attacking quality and GPG metrics (2.1 and 1.7) suggest goal-scoring capability. World Cup stage amplifies attacking intent from both sides.

    Mexico

    Form comparison

    England

    6.7
    Form scoreout of 10
    7.3
    Form score: Mexico 6.7, England 7.3
    1.90
    Goals scoredper game
    2.40
    Goals scored: Mexico 1.90, England 2.40
    0.50
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    1.20
    Goals conceded: Mexico 0.50, England 1.20

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    4/5Mexico
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    England0/5
    0/5Mexico
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    England0/5
    1.9Mexico
    Goals For per game
    England2.4
    0.5Mexico
    Goals Against per game
    England1.2
    0Mexico
    Win Streakmatches
    England1
    Season averages • Mexico: 10 matches • England: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Mexico
    Mexico
    Solid6.7/10
    WWWWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    1/5
    Clean sheet
    4/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    England
    England
    Solid7.3/10
    WWWLW
    Over 2.5 goals
    5/5
    BTTS
    5/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Last 5 meetings
    0W - 0D - 1L from Mexico's perspective
    • 06 Jul 2026Mexico2-3England
    Mexico
    Mexico
    Last 5 matches
    • 06 Jul 2026vsEngland2-3L
    • 01 Jul 2026vsEcuador2-0W
    • 25 Jun 2026vsCzechia0-3W
    • 19 Jun 2026vsSouth Korea1-0W
    • 11 Jun 2026vsSouth Africa2-0W
    England
    England
    Last 5 matches
    • 18 Jul 2026vsFrance4-6W
    • 15 Jul 2026vsArgentina1-2L
    • 11 Jul 2026vsNorway1-2W
    • 06 Jul 2026vsMexico2-3W
    • 01 Jul 2026vsCongo DR2-1W

    Mexico vs England: form and season numbers

    Mexico take a form score of 6.7 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 7.3 for England. Mexico have 4 wins and 1 defeat in their last 5, while England have 4 wins and 1 defeat in theirs. Across the season Mexico average 1.9 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game, England 2.4 and 1.2. Mexico have kept a clean sheet in 70% of their matches this season, England in 40%. In their last 1 meeting Mexico have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 1.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

    Tomorrow's top pick, free, the moment it drops

    Every pick is posted to the free Telegram channel before kickoff and the full record stays public, win or lose.

    Join the free Telegram