Dijon arrive at this Ligue 2 curtain-raiser having recorded a form score of 9.56 out of 10 across their summer programme, a rating Formatic classes as excellent and one that opens a 2.67-point gap over Montpellier's strong but more modest 6.89. That disparity is built on an unbeaten pre-season run of 4 wins and 1 draw for the visitors, who have scored 15 goals and conceded only 5 across those five friendlies. Montpellier have been nearly as prolific in front of goal with 13 scored over the same sample, but defensive leaks have been more frequent: they shipped 9 across their preparation matches, including a 4-3 home defeat to Cannes on 22 July and a 3-2 win over Aubagne on 11 July. Both sides have found the net in all 5 of their recent outings, suggesting attacking rhythm is well established on each side even if the competitive intensity has yet to return.

Montpellier's summer has mixed resilience with vulnerability. They edged Clermont Foot 1-0 away on 25 July and hammered Le Puy Foot 5-2 at home on 17 July, performances that demonstrate firepower when conditions suit. The sole competitive result in their last five came back in May, a 1-1 draw away to RED Star FC 93 that offers limited insight into their current state. Clean sheets have been elusive, arriving in only 1 of their 5 matches, and the pattern of high-scoring friendlies points to a side that will commit numbers forward but leave gaps in transition. Dijon's recent results tell a more consistent story: they dismantled Sochaux 3-0 away on 25 July, beat Bourg-en-bresse 01 2-1 on the road four days earlier, and put 4 past Progres Niederkorn at home on 18 July. Only 1 clean sheet in 5 suggests they are not impenetrable, but 4 wins from 5 and an average of 3 goals scored per match give them clear momentum heading into the new campaign.

The head to head record across the last 10 meetings produces 2 wins apiece and 6 draws, with 3.7 goals per fixture and both teams on the scoresheet in all 10 encounters. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of those 10, a strike rate that aligns neatly with the recent output from both camps. The itemised sample includes Montpellier's 4-2 home win on 7 February 2021, a 2-2 draw at Dijon on 27 September 2020, and three further meetings between January 2019 and January 2020 that split 2 home wins for Montpellier against 2 draws and 1 Dijon win across the broader set. The frequency of drawn outcomes and the near-certain presence of goals at both ends make any low-scoring or one-sided forecast difficult to justify on historical evidence alone.

Dijon's superior pre-season form and unbeaten run position them as marginal favourites, but Montpellier's home record in this fixture and their own attacking output keep the margin tight. Both sides have scored in every recent outing and in every recorded head to head, and the 3.7-goal average across past meetings sits comfortably above the 2.5 threshold that has cleared in 8 of 10. The goals data and form profiles point toward an open contest with multiple scoring opportunities, and Formatic's model will weight the excellent visitor form against the historical draw frequency and the home side's goalscoring continuity when it prices the fixture closer to kick-off.