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    World Cup · kickoff 02:00
    FT 1-1
    Netherlands
    Netherlands
    WDWWD
    final
    1 - 1
    Morocco
    Morocco
    WWDWL
    how the market sees it finishing
    42%
    Netherlands
    31%
    Draw
    27%
    Morocco

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 2 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.

    12.24
    X3.05
    23.50

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultLoss
    Home Win@ 2.24
    Safer: Netherlands or draw at 1.29
    7/10
    Netherlands edge form (8.0 vs 7.78) and hold superior attacking output at 2.4 GPG versus Morocco's 2.2. Home advantage in a World Cup knockout scenario historically favours the higher-ranked European side.
    GoalsLoss
    Over 2.5 Goals@ 2.23
    8/10
    Combined 4.6 GPG between both sides points to 3+ goals. Netherlands average 2.4 GPG and Morocco 2.2 GPG, both teams arrive with strong attacking form and World Cup knockout intensity typically produces goals.
    Both teams to scoreWin
    Yes@ 1.85
    7/10
    Morocco's 2.2 GPG suggests consistent scoring ability against quality opposition. Netherlands concede occasionally despite strong form, Morocco's tournament pedigree (7.78 form) makes them capable of finding the net.

    Netherlands

    Form comparison

    Morocco

    6.9
    Form scoreout of 10
    5.3
    Form score: Netherlands 6.9, Morocco 5.3
    2.10
    Goals scoredper game
    2.20
    Goals scored: Netherlands 2.10, Morocco 2.20
    1.00
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    0.80
    Goals conceded: Netherlands 1.00, Morocco 0.80

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    0/5Netherlands
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Morocco2/5
    0/5Netherlands
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Morocco1/5
    2.1Netherlands
    Goals For per game
    Morocco2.2
    1.0Netherlands
    Goals Against per game
    Morocco0.8
    0Netherlands
    Win Streakmatches
    Morocco0
    Season averages • Netherlands: 10 matches • Morocco: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Netherlands
    Netherlands
    Solid6.9/10
    WDWWD
    Over 2.5 goals
    4/5
    BTTS
    5/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Morocco
    Morocco
    Solid5.3/10
    WWDWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    2/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    Last 5 meetings
    1W - 1D - 0L from Netherlands's perspective
    • 30 Jun 2026Netherlands1-1Morocco
    • 31 May 2017Morocco1-2Netherlands
    Netherlands
    Netherlands
    Last 5 matches
    • 30 Jun 2026vsMorocco1-1D
    • 25 Jun 2026vsTunisia1-3W
    • 20 Jun 2026vsSweden5-1W
    • 14 Jun 2026vsJapan2-2D
    • 08 Jun 2026vsUzbekistan2-1W
    Morocco
    Morocco
    Last 5 matches
    • 09 Jul 2026vsFrance2-0L
    • 04 Jul 2026vsCanada0-3W
    • 30 Jun 2026vsNetherlands1-1D
    • 24 Jun 2026vsHaiti4-2W
    • 19 Jun 2026vsScotland0-1W

    Netherlands vs Morocco: form and season numbers

    Netherlands take a form score of 6.9 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 5.3 for Morocco. Netherlands have 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5, while Morocco have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in theirs. Across the season Netherlands average 2.1 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, Morocco 2.2 and 0.8. Netherlands have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their matches this season, Morocco in 40%. In their last 2 meetings Netherlands have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 0.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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