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    World Cup · kickoff 22:00
    FT 1-1
    Norway
    Norway
    WLWWL
    final
    1 - 1
    England
    England
    WWWLW
    how the market sees it finishing
    25%
    Norway
    26%
    Draw
    49%
    England

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 1 - 2

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.

    13.80
    X3.65
    21.92

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultPush, stake returned
    DNB England@ 1.37
    7/10
    England hold the superior tournament form (9.11/10 vs 8/10) and the deeper knockout pedigree. Norway are competitive at 2.1 goals a game, but England's form and clinical edge in major tournaments favour a narrow England win on neutral ground.
    GoalsLoss
    Over 2.5 Goals@ 1.70
    7/10
    Norway are averaging 2.1 goals a game this tournament and England 1.8. Knockout intensity at this stage typically produces goals from both sides pressing for advantage, and the model's predicted 3-goal total aligns with Over 2.5.
    Both teams to scoreWin
    Yes@ 1.62
    8/10
    Norway average 2.1 goals a game this tournament and carry genuine scoring threat even against elite opposition. England's games have seen goals conceded at both ends of the bracket, and World Cup knockout ties this deep rarely finish with a clean sheet.

    Norway

    Form comparison

    England

    5.3
    Form scoreout of 10
    7.3
    Form score: Norway 5.3, England 7.3
    1.80
    Goals scoredper game
    2.40
    Goals scored: Norway 1.80, England 2.40
    1.50
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    1.20
    Goals conceded: Norway 1.50, England 1.20

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    0/5Norway
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    England0/5
    0/5Norway
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    England0/5
    1.8Norway
    Goals For per game
    England2.4
    1.5Norway
    Goals Against per game
    England1.2
    0Norway
    Win Streakmatches
    England1
    Season averages • Norway: 10 matches • England: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Norway
    Norway
    Solid5.3/10
    WLWWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    5/5
    BTTS
    5/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    England
    England
    Solid7.3/10
    WWWLW
    Over 2.5 goals
    5/5
    BTTS
    5/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Last 5 meetings
    0W - 0D - 1L from Norway's perspective
    • 11 Jul 2026Norway1-2England
    Norway
    Norway
    Last 5 matches
    • 11 Jul 2026vsEngland1-2L
    • 05 Jul 2026vsBrazil1-2W
    • 30 Jun 2026vsIvory Coast1-2W
    • 26 Jun 2026vsFrance1-4L
    • 23 Jun 2026vsSenegal3-2W
    England
    England
    Last 5 matches
    • 18 Jul 2026vsFrance4-6W
    • 15 Jul 2026vsArgentina1-2L
    • 11 Jul 2026vsNorway1-2W
    • 06 Jul 2026vsMexico2-3W
    • 01 Jul 2026vsCongo DR2-1W

    Norway vs England: form and season numbers

    Norway take a form score of 5.3 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 7.3 for England. Norway have 3 wins and 2 defeats in their last 5, while England have 4 wins and 1 defeat in theirs. Across the season Norway average 1.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game, England 2.4 and 1.2. Norway have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their matches this season, England in 40%. In their last 1 meeting Norway have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 1.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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