Getafe arrive with a weighted form score of 7.11 out of 10 against Osasuna's 3.33, a gap of 3.78 points that frames this opening fixture of the new La Liga campaign. The visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches and posted 3 clean sheets across that stretch, conceding just 2 goals in total. By contrast, Osasuna have managed only 1 win from 5, shipping 8 goals and keeping a single clean sheet. That solitary Osasuna victory came in a 2-0 friendly against Racing Santander on 24 July, while their four defeats all arrived in competitive La Liga action, most recently a 0-1 loss at home to Getafe on 23 May and a 1-2 home defeat to Espanyol on 17 May. The hosts also fell 1-2 at home to Atletico Madrid on 12 May and 2-3 away to Levante on 8 May, a run that underscores sustained defensive fragility heading into the new term.

Getafe's recent sequence shows 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, with all 3 victories secured by a single-goal margin. They beat Osasuna 1-0 on 23 May in their most recent competitive outing, then opened pre-season with a 1-0 home win over Reading on 17 July and a 2-1 away victory at Tenerife on 22 July before settling for a 0-0 draw at Valladolid on 25 July. That defensive solidity, exemplified by 3 clean sheets in 5, contrasts sharply with Osasuna's struggles to keep opponents out. Osasuna have scored in 4 of their last 5 and found the net 6 times overall, yet conceding 8 across the same span leaves them vulnerable against a Getafe side that has allowed just 2 goals in the same sample.

The head to head record across the last 10 meetings tilts decisively toward Getafe, who have won 6 times to Osasuna's 2, with 2 draws. Those 10 fixtures have averaged 2.7 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 7 of 10 and over 2.5 goals landing in 5 of 10. Of the 5 itemised encounters, Getafe took the most recent 1-0 on 23 May 2026, prevailed 1-2 at Osasuna on 16 March 2025, and drew 1-1 away on 5 October 2024. Osasuna's two wins came 2-1 at home on 3 October 2025 and 3-2 at home on 21 January 2024, both high-scoring affairs that bucked the pattern of tight Getafe control. The May meeting followed the template of Getafe's recent away efficiency: compact, low-scoring and decided by a single goal.

Osasuna's four consecutive competitive defeats, all conceding at least one goal, suggest they enter this fixture under immediate pressure to arrest a slide that carried through the final weeks of the previous campaign. Getafe's ability to grind out 1-0 and 2-1 wins, combined with 3 clean sheets in 5, positions them to exploit exactly the kind of fragile home defence Osasuna displayed when losing 0-1 and 1-2 in their last two fixtures at this venue. The 3.78-point form gap is the widest differential in this brief, and with Getafe having won the last head to head meeting by the same 1-0 scoreline they have repeated in two of their last three wins, the numbers point toward another low-scoring visitor success. Formatic's model will score this fixture closer to kick-off, but the underlying data favours Getafe to extend both their recent dominance in this fixture and Osasuna's winless competitive run.