Osasuna welcome Rayo Vallecano on Sunday carrying a substantial head-to-head advantage that stands in sharp contrast to both sides' current form. The hosts have won 6 of the last 10 meetings between the pair, with Rayo Vallecano managing 3 wins and 1 draw across that sequence. More telling still is the recent pattern: Osasuna took both fixtures in 2025 and early 2026, winning 2-0 at home in September 2025 before a 3-1 victory at Rayo in January 2026. That run represents a clear shift from the previous campaign, when Rayo Vallecano won twice including a 3-1 home victory in September 2024 and a 2-1 success in April 2024. The only draw in the sample came in January 2025, a 1-1 result at Osasuna.

Neither side arrives in particularly convincing shape, though Osasuna hold a modest edge on Formatic's weighted form metric. Their score of 3.33 out of 10 ranks as poor, but Rayo Vallecano's 2 out of 10 is worse still, creating a form gap of 1.33 in the hosts' favour. Osasuna's recent competitive record shows 1 win and 4 defeats across their last 5 outings, with 6 scored and 8 conceded in that stretch. They have scored in 4 of those 5 matches and kept 1 clean sheet. The defeat column tells a familiar story: beaten 1-0 away to Getafe, 2-1 at home to Espanyol, 2-1 at home to Atletico Madrid, and 3-2 away to Levante. Their sole win came in a 2-0 friendly against Racing Santander in late July, a result that carries less weight than the competitive fixtures but at least offered a clean sheet and two goals.

Rayo Vallecano's sample includes three friendlies and two competitive fixtures, with 2 wins and 3 defeats across the 5. They also managed 6 scored and 6 conceded, scoring in 4 of 5 and keeping 1 clean sheet. The competitive outings delivered contrasting outcomes: a 1-0 defeat away to Crystal Palace in the UEFA Europa Conference League, sandwiched between a 2-1 win at Alaves and a 2-0 home victory over Villarreal. The pre-season friendlies brought defeats, losing 2-1 away to Feyenoord and 2-1 away to Heart Of Midlothian. That balance of 2 wins from 5 sounds marginally better than Osasuna's 1 from 5, but the form weighting takes into account the nature and timing of results, and on that measure Rayo Vallecano sit lower.

The head-to-head profile consistently delivers goals: an average of 2.6 per meeting, with both teams scoring in 6 of 10 and over 2.5 goals landing in 6 of 10. Recent encounters have followed that pattern, with 7 goals in the September 2025 meeting, 4 in January 2026, and 4 again in September 2024. Even the January 2025 draw produced 2 goals. Both sides have managed to score in 4 of their last 5 outings, suggesting the attacking output remains steady despite the unflattering win ratios. Osasuna's head-to-head dominance and home advantage offer the clearest thread through the data, particularly given that 6 wins from 10 and both recent victories point to a fixture they have learned to control.