Oviedo return to Segunda División action carrying worrying attacking numbers from pre-season. The hosts have failed to score in each of their last 5 outings, a run that includes competitive fixtures against Real Madrid, Alavés and Mallorca, where they shipped 6 goals without reply. Two clean sheets in that sequence offer some defensive resistance, both arriving in goalless friendlies against Deportivo La Coruña and Al-Qadisiyah, but the lack of goals scored is a sharper concern. Oviedo's form score of 2 out of 10 places them in the poor band, and the barren spell stretches across every format they have played.

Leganés arrive with patchy form graded at 3.78 out of 10, marginally better but hardly commanding. Their pre-season programme produced 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 4 goals scored and 6 conceded across 5 friendlies. The victory came at Penafiel, a 2-0 success, while the heaviest reverse was a 4-1 loss at Real Madrid. Leganés found the net in 3 of those 5 matches and kept 3 clean sheets, suggesting intermittent sharpness rather than sustained rhythm. The form gap of 1.78 in Leganés's favour reflects the marginally more varied output, though neither side enters this opener in convincing shape.

The head to head record across the last 10 meetings shows Oviedo with 4 wins to Leganés's 3, alongside 3 draws. Goals have been scarce in this fixture, averaging 1.4 per meeting, with both teams scoring in only 3 of 10 and over 2.5 goals reached in just 3 of 10. The 5 most recent clashes include three meetings that finished goalless: a 0-0 draw at Leganés in August 2025, another 0-0 at Leganés in October 2023, and a pair of narrow results either side. Oviedo won 1-0 at home in January 2024 and again by the same margin away in March 2023, while Leganés took a 2-1 victory at home in August 2024. The pattern points to low-scoring affairs, tight margins and a reluctance from either side to open up.

The goals profile supports that reading. Oviedo's inability to score in their last 5 and Leganés's modest return of 4 from the same sample size suggest limited firepower on both sides. Clean sheets have been more common than scoring runs, with Oviedo managing 2 shutouts despite conceding 6 overall, and Leganés recording 3 clean sheets while also leaking 6. The head to head average of 1.4 goals per game aligns closely with the recent output from both camps, and the under 2.5 goals line has landed in 7 of the last 10 encounters between them.

Formatic's model will publish closer to kick-off, but the data points toward a contest decided by fine margins. Oviedo's attacking drought is the headline concern, while Leganés have shown they can be shut out but also possess the capacity to score in patches. The home advantage may count for little if Oviedo cannot break their barren run, and Leganés's edge in form, however slim, could prove decisive in a fixture where one goal has often been enough to settle the outcome.