Our model scores this match once both teams have enough recent form to work from, predictions publish in the days before kickoff. Form, head-to-head and season stats are available in the tabs above now.
Paris Saint Germain
Form comparisonMonaco
The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.
- 06 Mar 2026Paris Saint Germain1-3Monaco
- 25 Feb 2026Paris Saint Germain2-2Monaco
- 17 Feb 2026Monaco2-3Paris Saint Germain
- 29 Nov 2025Monaco1-0Paris Saint Germain
- 07 Feb 2025Paris Saint Germain4-1Monaco
- 30 May 2026vsArsenal1-1D
- 17 May 2026vsParis FC2-1L
- 13 May 2026vsLens0-2W
- 10 May 2026vsStade Brestois 291-0W
- 06 May 2026vsBayern München1-1D
- 25 Jul 2026vsSporting CP2-0L
- 18 Jul 2026vsSaint-Priest5-2W
- 17 May 2026vsStrasbourg5-4L
- 10 May 2026vsLille0-1L
- 02 May 2026vsMetz1-2W
Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco: form and season numbers
Paris Saint Germain take a form score of 4.7 out of 10 into this Ligue 1 fixture, against 3.3 for Monaco. Paris Saint Germain have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5, while Monaco have 2 wins and 3 defeats in theirs. Across the season Paris Saint Germain average 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, Monaco 2.0 and 2.1. Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their matches this season, Monaco in 0%. In their last 10 meetings Paris Saint Germain have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3. Paris Saint Germain sit 13th on 0 points, Monaco 3rd on 0.
Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.
Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco prediction: Goals expected in volatile encounter
Paris Saint Germain welcome Monaco on Saturday with both sides carrying fragile form into a fixture that has consistently delivered entertainment. The hosts arrive with a weighted score of 4.67 out of 10 across their last five outings, a patchy return built on 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat. Monaco's recent work rates even lower at 3.33 out of 10, poor form underpinned by 2 wins and 3 losses from their last five, and a worrying inability to keep opponents out. Neither side has found defensive consistency, and the head to head record suggests this meeting will follow that pattern.
Paris Saint Germain have scored in all of their last 5 matches, collecting 6 goals across that span while conceding 4. Their most recent run includes a 1-1 draw at home to Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League on 30 May, a 1-2 reverse away to Paris FC in Ligue 1 on 17 May, and back-to-back narrow victories: 2-0 away to Lens on 13 May and 1-0 at home to Stade Brestois 29 on 10 May. They also drew 1-1 away to Bayern München in the Champions League on 6 May. The scoring consistency is valuable, but 2 clean sheets from 5 suggests vulnerability at the back, and the defeat to Paris FC will sting. Their patchy form score reflects a side that can deliver results but lacks the polish to dominate every fixture.
Monaco have conceded in every one of their last 5 outings, shipping 11 goals while scoring 11, a balance that speaks to open matches and defensive fragility. Competitive form ended badly: a 4-5 defeat away to Strasbourg on 17 May and a 0-1 home loss to Lille on 10 May, sandwiched around a 2-1 win away to Metz on 2 May. Pre-season friendlies brought a 0-2 loss away to Sporting CP on 25 July and a 5-2 home win over Saint-Priest on 18 July, though those carry less weight. Monaco have managed to score in only 3 of their last 5, and the absence of a single clean sheet across the sample is a red flag ahead of a trip to the capital.
The last 10 meetings have produced 3.7 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 7 of 10 and over 2.5 goals landing in 7 of 10. Paris Saint Germain hold 5 wins to Monaco's 3, with 2 draws, but recent history has swung Monaco's way. On 6 March 2026 Monaco won 3-1, followed by a 2-2 draw on 25 February and a 3-2 Paris Saint Germain victory on 17 February. Monaco also took a 1-0 win on 29 November 2025, while Paris Saint Germain claimed a 4-1 success on 7 February 2025. Four of those five meetings went over 2.5 goals, and three saw both sides score.
With neither defence offering much resistance and both attacks capable of contributing, the data points toward another high-scoring affair. Paris Saint Germain's narrow form advantage and home setting provide a foundation, but Monaco's recent head to head success and the fixture's goal profile make this a clash where backing goals rather than a side may offer the clearest value. The shape of this match is written in the numbers: expect chances at both ends and little to separate the two when the final whistle sounds.
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