Ajax arrive at this Eredivisie opener with a weighted form score of 9.11 out of 10, a rating built on four wins and a draw across their last five outings and sustained by a record of scoring in every one of those fixtures while conceding just 3 goals across the set. PEC Zwolle bring a form score of 2.67 out of 10 to the same table, a mark that reflects one win against four defeats in their last five, 7 goals scored and 11 conceded, and no clean sheet in any of those matches. The gap between the two sides measures 6.44 on Formatic's weighted scale, and the shape of their pre-season work does nothing to narrow it.

Ajax closed their preparations with a 2-1 win at home to Burnley and before that dispatched Vojvodina 4-1 away in the UEFA Europa Conference League, their one competitive outing of the summer. Narrow victories over Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Larnaca, plus a 1-1 draw at home to VfL Bochum, complete a sequence in which they have kept two clean sheets and scored 9 times. That defensive record, built across matches of varying intensity, suggests structure is already in place, and the 4-1 scoreline in qualifying competition confirms the attack is sharp when the stakes rise. PEC Zwolle's summer tells a different story. They lost 2-3 at home to AEK Athens FC, 0-1 at home to Al-Jazira and 0-2 at home to Feyenoord, the latter a competitive Eredivisie fixture in May that sits alongside a 2-3 defeat away to Fortuna Sittard in their recent record. A 3-2 win at home to Cercle Brugge is the lone positive result in a run that has produced 7 goals scored, 11 conceded and no clean sheet across five matches.

The head to head record across the last 10 meetings runs 7 wins to Ajax, 2 draws and 1 win to PEC Zwolle, with 2.3 goals per meeting and both teams scoring in 3 of the 10. The most recent encounter on 1 March 2026 ended 0-0, Ajax's second draw in the sample and one of only four fixtures in the set that cleared 2.5 goals. Before that, Ajax won 3-1 on 13 September 2025 and 1-0 on 9 March 2025, and PEC Zwolle's solitary victory in this window came on 5 July 2024 by a 1-0 scoreline. Ajax also took a 2-0 win on 24 November 2024, completing a pattern in which low-scoring outcomes are the norm and the visitors have controlled seven meetings out of ten.

PEC Zwolle have scored in 3 of their last 5 and conceded in all 5, while Ajax have scored in every one of their last 5 and kept clean sheets in 2. The hosts' inability to shut out opposition of any description, combined with Ajax's record of finding the net in every recent outing, points toward a fixture in which the visitors score at least once and PEC Zwolle's defensive frailty is tested early. The form gulf of 6.44 is among the widest you will see at the top level of Dutch football, and the league table will begin to reflect that within 90 minutes of kick-off on Sunday afternoon.