Philadelphia Union welcome Atlanta United on Sunday with a chasm in current form separating two sides sitting adjacent in the MLS table. The hosts occupy 14th on 13 points from 17 matches, one place and one point above their visitors, but Formatic's weighted form score tells a sharper story. Philadelphia rate at 6.44 out of 10 across their last five outings, steady and showing recent signs of life, while Atlanta limp in at 0.89, a very poor return that reflects a side in deep trouble.

Philadelphia have collected 3 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses this season, scoring 22 and conceding 31 at averages of 1.29 and 1.82 per game. Their recent run offers genuine encouragement: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats across the last five, with 12 scored and 12 conceded in that spell. Crucially, they have found the net in all five, including back-to-back home wins, a 3-1 dismissal of New York Red Bulls on 22 July and a 1-0 victory over Seattle Sounders three days later. That clean sheet against Seattle was their first in five, but the attacking output has been reliable, even in defeats such as the 4-6 loss at Inter Miami and the 3-4 reverse at Orlando City.

Atlanta United arrive in alarming shape. Their 3 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses leave them on 12 points, scoring just 17 and shipping 30 across the campaign at rates of 1.00 and 1.76 per game. The last five fixtures produced no victories, 1 draw and 4 defeats, yielding only 4 goals while conceding 13. They have failed to keep a single clean sheet in that stretch and were blanked in 2 of the 5, losing 1-0 at Nashville and 2-0 at Columbus Crew. The 4-1 hammering at New England Revolution on 25 July and the 4-1 US Open Cup exit at Orlando underline a side leaking goals on every road trip. An 8-match season sample shows Atlanta managing 4.4 shots on target per game from 14.5 attempts, creating 1.35 expected goals but keeping clean sheets in only 10 percent of fixtures.

The head to head record across the last 10 meetings favours Philadelphia with 5 wins to Atlanta's 2 and 3 draws. The sides have shared 2.7 goals per meeting on average, with both teams scoring in 5 of 10 and over 2.5 goals landing in 5 of 10. The most recent encounter saw Atlanta win 3-1 at home on 14 March 2026, but before that Philadelphia took a 1-0 away win on 17 May 2025 and hammered Atlanta 3-0 at home on 19 April 2025. The previous two were 1-1 and 2-2 draws in September and April 2024 respectively. Philadelphia have won three of the five itemised fixtures, suggesting they hold the measure of this opponent when both sides meet.

The bookmakers make Philadelphia 1.67 favourites, implying a 55 percent chance with the margin stripped out, against 21 percent for an Atlanta win at 4.33 and 24 percent for the draw at 3.80. Formatic's model expects a 2-1 home victory as the likeliest single scoreline, pricing Philadelphia to win at 4.00 and over 2.5 goals at 1.59. With Philadelphia scoring in every one of their last five and Atlanta yet to keep a clean sheet in theirs, the numbers point to goals at both ends and a home side capable of exploiting a visitor in freefall.