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    World Cup · kickoff 00:00
    FT 2-1
    Portugal
    Portugal
    DWDWL
    final
    2 - 1
    Croatia
    Croatia
    WLWWL
    how the market sees it finishing
    55%
    Portugal
    26%
    Draw
    19%
    Croatia

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 1 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.

    11.73
    X3.70
    24.90

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultWin
    DC Portugal/Draw@ 1.22
    6/10
    Portugal home form 6.44/10 vs Croatia away form 7.33/10 shows minimal edge. World Cup knockout intensity typically produces cagey affairs, Portugal unbeaten at home but Croatia's superior form (7.33) and tournament pedigree suggest a tight contest favouring draw or narrow Portugal edge.
    GoalsLoss
    Under 2.5 Goals@ 2.02
    7/10
    World Cup knockout matches historically tight and tactical. Portugal 2.3 GPG and Croatia 1.9 GPG suggest 2 total goals. Tournament pressure typically suppresses scoring in crucial fixtures, predicted 1-1 draw aligns with cautious approach from both sides.
    Both teams to scoreWin
    Yes@ 1.73
    7/10
    Both nations possess attacking quality, Portugal 2.3 GPG, Croatia 1.9 GPG. Knockout stage forces both teams to commit forward at some point, creating scoring opportunities for each side in a 1-1 scenario.

    Portugal

    Form comparison

    Croatia

    4.9
    Form scoreout of 10
    5.3
    Form score: Portugal 4.9, Croatia 5.3
    2.30
    Goals scoredper game
    1.70
    Goals scored: Portugal 2.30, Croatia 1.70
    0.60
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    1.70
    Goals conceded: Portugal 0.60, Croatia 1.70

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    2/5Portugal
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Croatia1/5
    2/5Portugal
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Croatia0/5
    2.3Portugal
    Goals For per game
    Croatia1.7
    0.6Portugal
    Goals Against per game
    Croatia1.7
    0Portugal
    Win Streakmatches
    Croatia0
    Season averages • Portugal: 10 matches • Croatia: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Portugal
    Portugal
    Mixed4.9/10
    DWDWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    2/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    3/5
    Croatia
    Croatia
    Solid5.3/10
    WLWWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    4/5
    BTTS
    4/5
    Clean sheet
    1/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Last 5 meetings
    5W - 2D - 1L from Portugal's perspective
    • 02 Jul 2026Portugal2-1Croatia
    • 18 Nov 2024Croatia1-1Portugal
    • 05 Sept 2024Portugal2-1Croatia
    • 08 Jun 2024Portugal1-2Croatia
    • 17 Nov 2020Croatia2-3Portugal
    Portugal
    Portugal
    Last 5 matches
    • 06 Jul 2026vsSpain0-1L
    • 02 Jul 2026vsCroatia2-1W
    • 27 Jun 2026vsColombia0-0D
    • 23 Jun 2026vsUzbekistan5-0W
    • 17 Jun 2026vsCongo DR1-1D
    Croatia
    Croatia
    Last 5 matches
    • 02 Jul 2026vsPortugal2-1L
    • 27 Jun 2026vsGhana2-1W
    • 23 Jun 2026vsPanama0-1W
    • 17 Jun 2026vsEngland4-2L
    • 07 Jun 2026vsSlovenia2-1W

    Portugal vs Croatia: form and season numbers

    Portugal take a form score of 4.9 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 5.3 for Croatia. Portugal have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5, while Croatia have 3 wins and 2 defeats in theirs. Across the season Portugal average 2.3 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game, Croatia 1.7 and 1.7. Portugal have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their matches this season, Croatia in 10%. In their last 8 meetings Portugal have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 1.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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