Back to all matches
    World Cup · kickoff 20:00
    FT 0-1
    Portugal
    Portugal
    DWDWL
    final
    0 - 1
    Spain
    Spain
    WWWWW
    how the market sees it finishing
    24%
    Portugal
    26%
    Draw
    50%
    Spain

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 1 - 2

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.

    14.00
    X3.60
    21.91

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultWin
    DNB Spain@ 1.40
    7/10
    Spain's superior form (9.11/10 vs 7.33/10) and tournament momentum justify the away win pick. DNB Away at 1.40 offers better value than straight Away Win at 1.91 given World Cup knockout stage tension.
    GoalsLoss
    Over 2.5 Goals@ 1.85
    8/10
    Both nations averaging 2+ GPG (Portugal 2.3, Spain 1.89). World Cup knockout clashes between Iberian rivals historically produce 3+ goals with attacking intent from both sides.
    Both teams to scoreLoss
    Yes@ 1.73
    8/10
    Portugal's 2.3 GPG at home ensures they'll threaten Spain's defense. Spain conceding in competitive fixtures despite 9.11/10 form. High-stakes derby guarantees both attack.

    Portugal

    Form comparison

    Spain

    4.9
    Form scoreout of 10
    10.0
    Form score: Portugal 4.9, Spain 10.0
    2.30
    Goals scoredper game
    1.80
    Goals scored: Portugal 2.30, Spain 1.80
    0.60
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    0.30
    Goals conceded: Portugal 0.60, Spain 0.30

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    2/5Portugal
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Spain4/5
    2/5Portugal
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Spain0/5
    2.3Portugal
    Goals For per game
    Spain1.8
    0.6Portugal
    Goals Against per game
    Spain0.3
    0Portugal
    Win Streakmatches
    Spain7
    Season averages • Portugal: 10 matches • Spain: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Portugal
    Portugal
    Mixed4.9/10
    DWDWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    2/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    3/5
    Spain
    Spain
    Excellent10.0/10
    WWWWW
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    1/5
    Clean sheet
    4/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Last 5 meetings
    0W - 6D - 3L from Portugal's perspective
    • 06 Jul 2026Portugal0-1Spain
    • 08 Jun 2025Portugal2-2Spain
    • 27 Sept 2022Portugal0-1Spain
    • 02 Jun 2022Spain1-1Portugal
    • 04 Jun 2021Spain0-0Portugal
    Portugal
    Portugal
    Last 5 matches
    • 06 Jul 2026vsSpain0-1L
    • 02 Jul 2026vsCroatia2-1W
    • 27 Jun 2026vsColombia0-0D
    • 23 Jun 2026vsUzbekistan5-0W
    • 17 Jun 2026vsCongo DR1-1D
    Spain
    Spain
    Last 5 matches
    • 19 Jul 2026vsArgentina1-0W
    • 14 Jul 2026vsFrance0-2W
    • 10 Jul 2026vsBelgium2-1W
    • 06 Jul 2026vsPortugal0-1W
    • 02 Jul 2026vsAustria3-0W

    Portugal vs Spain: form and season numbers

    Portugal take a form score of 4.9 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 10.0 for Spain. Portugal have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5, while Spain have 5 wins in theirs. Across the season Portugal average 2.3 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game, Spain 1.8 and 0.3. Portugal have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their matches this season, Spain in 70%. In their last 9 meetings Portugal have won 0, drawn 6 and lost 3.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

    Tomorrow's top pick, free, the moment it drops

    Every pick is posted to the free Telegram channel before kickoff and the full record stays public, win or lose.

    Join the free Telegram