Preston North End enter their Championship opener without a single point from their five pre-season friendlies, a run that brought four goals scored and eleven conceded. Beaten 3-0 at Marine and 1-0 at home to Cambridge United, they managed only two occasions when they found the net across those five matches and kept zero clean sheets. The most recent outing, a 1-0 reverse at Stockport County, extended a sequence in which they failed to score in three of five fixtures. Weighted form of 2.5 out of 10 reflects preparation that offered little encouragement, though the friendly label means those results carry lighter significance than competitive returns will.

Lincoln City arrive with patchy form themselves, rated 4.2 out of 10 after a pre-season that yielded two wins and three defeats. The victories came 1-0 at Doncaster and 1-0 at Boston United, both by the same scoreline and both featuring clean sheets that helped deliver defensive shutouts in 40 percent of their four-match sample. Those gains were offset by a 5-1 hammering at Grimsby, a 3-0 loss at Barnsley and a 2-0 home defeat to Leyton Orient. Across the five friendlies they scored three and conceded ten, finding the net in three of five but shipping goals freely when breached. The form gap of 1.7 in Lincoln's favour is modest, yet it separates two sides who have each shown vulnerability.

The underlying season profiles, built from three matches for Preston and four for Lincoln, reveal attacking outputs in a similar band. Preston average 14.7 shots and 5.7 on target per outing, generating 2.42 expected goals, while Lincoln post 13 shots and 4.8 on target for 1.75 expected goals. Preston edge possession narrowly at 42.3 percent against 44.8, and both sides collect six corners per game. Discipline tilts toward Lincoln, whose 1.8 yellow cards per match compare favourably with Preston's 2.7, though the visitors commit more fouls at 13.2 against 10.3. Preston failed to score in 33 percent of their sample, Lincoln in 20 percent, and Lincoln's clean-sheet rate of 40 percent stands against Preston's zero.

The single meeting between the sides came on 12 July 2024, when Lincoln won 1-0 at Preston. That fixture produced one goal, no contribution from the hosts and no occasion when both teams scored. The 0-1 scoreline sits comfortably within a broader pattern: across the head to head sample, which spans just that one encounter, over 2.5 goals landed in zero of one and both teams to score in zero of one. Lincoln hold the only win from the lone data point, and Preston will need to overturn both that result and their own winless friendly sequence when the competitive campaign begins.

Formatic's model scores this fixture closer to kick-off, so no published selection is yet available. The numbers suggest a contest between two sides whose preparation has been unconvincing, with Lincoln carrying the better defensive record and the psychological edge of that July 2024 success. Preston's failure to keep a single clean sheet across their friendlies and Lincoln's ability to shut out opponents twice in four matches point toward a low-scoring affair, and the head to head history offers no encouragement that goals will flow freely. Whether Preston can convert home advantage and a marginally higher expected-goals output into three points will depend on finding the scoring touch that eluded them in three of their last five outings.