PSV carry a nine-from-ten record over Groningen into this Eredivisie fixture, a run of dominance that includes recent wins by 6-0, 5-0 and 3-1 margins. Only once in the last ten meetings have the visitors taken three points, and the two sides have never drawn across that sequence. The head-to-head average sits at 4.3 goals per fixture with over 2.5 landing in 8 of those 10, establishing a pattern of open, high-scoring encounters that has favoured the home side emphatically. PSV have conceded in 6 of the 10 but have won every one of those matches regardless, suggesting their attacking output has consistently outweighed any defensive lapses when these two meet.

PSV arrive with a pre-season form score of 6.89 out of 10, rated strong by Formatic's weighted measure. Across their last five friendlies they have registered 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, scoring 15 goals and conceding 9. They have found the net in all 5 matches, with recent fixtures including a 7-3 home win over Union St. Gilloise and a 3-2 victory against Raków Częstochowa. The one setback was a 1-3 home defeat to Villarreal, but they responded immediately with a 3-0 clean-sheet win over FC Eindhoven in their final warm-up. That run shows consistent attacking threat even if the defensive numbers are mixed, with just 1 clean sheet across the 5 outings. The pattern of scoring freely in pre-season aligns with their history against Groningen, where goals have rarely been in short supply.

Groningen's preparation has been far less convincing, earning a weighted score of just 2.44 out of 10, categorised as poor form. Their last five friendlies produced 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, with 5 goals scored and 10 conceded. They managed only 1 clean sheet, a 0-0 draw at home to Volos NFC, and failed to score in 2 of the 5 matches. The loss column includes a heavy 0-4 home defeat to FC Volendam and a 1-2 reverse against AEK Athens, while their solitary win was a 3-2 home success over Emmen. Across the sample Groningen have scored in just 3 of 5, underlining inconsistency in the final third. That lack of cutting edge is compounded by a defensive record that has conceded in 4 of the 5, leaving them vulnerable heading into a meeting with a side that has put 6 past them twice in recent seasons.

The form gap between the two stands at 4.45 in PSV's favour, the widest possible differential within a single rating band. Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 head-to-heads, and given PSV have netted in every one of their last 5 warm-up fixtures while Groningen have conceded in 4 of 5, that pattern looks likely to continue. The fixture history points overwhelmingly toward a home victory, with 9 wins from 10 and only one outcome in the last five meetings decided by a single goal. Groningen's solitary clean sheet in pre-season came in a goalless draw, offering little evidence they can shut out a side that averaged 3 goals per game across their warm-up schedule. The numbers suggest PSV will control proceedings and that the total goals line will be tested, as it has been in 8 of the last 10 encounters between these sides.